Smith Leonard Reports Industry Insights News for October

November 9, 2026  by Karen Parrish in Business Strategy, Industry   

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

August 2026 new orders were down 4% compared to the prior month of July 2026, but up 11% compared to August 2025. Year to date, new orders remain up 5% over 2025. August 2026 shipments were down 2% compared to July 2026, but up 1% from August 2025. Year to date, shipments remain up 1% from 2025. August 2026 backlogs are up 2% compared to July 2026 and 17% from August 2025.

Receivable levels were up 1% from July 2026, but down 2% compared to August 2025. Inventories were down 1% from July 2026, but up 1% from August 2025. Payrolls were flat with July 2026, up 5% compared to August 2025, and remain up 3% year to date. Employee levels are again materially in line with recent months and the downward trend from prior year.

NATIONAL

Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose by 7.5 points to 91.7 (1985=100) in October, up from 84.2 in September (a slight upward revision).

The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased by 8.6 points to 120.4.

The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—recovered by 6.9 points to 72.6, only partially reversing three consecutive monthly declines.

“Consumer confidence advanced in October, driven primarily by improved perceptions of current and expected business conditions,” said Fergus McCormick, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, The Conference Board. “The recovery was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October. Yet, despite the increase in October, consumer confidence remained on the long-term downward trend that’s persisted over the past few years. Consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months. This likely reflected higher price levels and persistent inflation, which eroded consumers’ purchasing power.”

On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and homes both declined slightly in October. Planned spending on durable goods in the month dropped across the board, with expected purchases of electronics such as smartphones, personal computers, laptops, and tablets pulling back by over 1%.

Housing

Existing-home sales increased by 1.5% month-over-month and decreased by 2.2% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales report.

Month-over-month sales increased in the South and West, held steady in the Midwest and declined in the Northeast. Year-over-year sales declined in all four regions.

“Despite the small monthly gain on a seasonally adjusted basis, August and September marked the two slowest months for home sales this year,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Further increases in mortgage rates in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify to purchase a home.”

Gross Domestic Product

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2026 (July, August, and September), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in investment and an upturn in government spending that were partly offset by a downturn in exports. Imports increased more in the third quarter than in the second quarter.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 5.6 percent in the second quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 5.0 percent, and the PCE price index, excluding food and energy increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 3.3 percent.

THOUGHTS FROM ASSURANCE PARTNER, MARK LAFERRIER

“It was good to see everyone back in High Point for the Fall Market, with traffic reported to be up 2-3% over Spring. Lots discussions about tariffs, supply chain challenges, AI implementations, retail trends, interest rates, and the “K-shaped economy”, but overall sentiment was high.”

“The participants in our stats program again saw new orders, shipments, and backlogs increase year over year for the fourth straight month with year-to-date new orders remaining up 5% through August 2026 compared to 2025. As stated before, hopefully the elevated backlogs (up 17% over last year) will provide good momentum for the remainder of our reporting year despite various headwinds.”

“Congrats to this year’s Hall of Fame inductees!”