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Factoids

Factoids offer brief snapshots of current topics pertinent to the Furniture industry based on our on-going research. Increase your grasp of current trends, consumer attitudes, and shifts within the industry through solid statistics and concise insight.

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Factoids

Mobility in America Part 3 | Regional Movers

Once a country on the move, mobility reached a historical low from 2015 to 2016 with only 11.2 percent of the population moving to a different home or apartment. This compares to a 1948 peak of 20.3 percent. The third and final factoid series on Mobility in America looks at where people are moving. Are more movers simply relocating to a nearby apartment or home? Is there migration into the cities from the suburbs? Are some more people moving to sunshine states? The final factoid in this series focuses on migration among the four U.S. regions.

Overall the sunshine states in the South and West had the most movers from 2015 to 2016. The South had the highest flow of people in and out of the region with Inmigrants and Outmigrants both over 900,000 people.  (See definitions below.) At 247,000 persons, the West had the most Net Internal Migration, with the South leading the way in total Net Migration (including movers from abroad).

The second chart shows the Net Internal Migration of movers (current residents moving within the country) over the last five years. Between 2012 and 2015, the South had on average the greatest net increase in population from movers each year.  However in 2015-2016, the West took over adding 247,000 additional people compared to 39,000 for the South. The Net Internal Migration in the Northeast and Midwest has been either null or negative for many years with more people leaving than moving in.

Movers from abroad relocate into all regions of the country. However, the South has been the greatest beneficiary over the last five years with 497,000 movers from 2015 to 2016.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey 2016

Mobility in America Part 3 | Cities vs. Suburbs | Owners vs. Renters

Once a country on the move, mobility reached a historical low from 2015 to 2016 with only 11.2 percent of the population moving to a different home or apartment. This compares to a 1948 peak of 20.3 percent. The third and final factoid series on Mobility in America looks at where people are moving. Are more movers simply relocating to a nearby apartment or home? Is there migration into the cities from the suburbs? Are some more people moving to sunshine states? The third factoid in this series focuses on migration in and out of cities and suburbs and mobility among owners versus renters. 

Despite the perception that inner cities are increasing in desirability the data reflects differently. Actually a yearly average of 1.5 million movers have left Principal Metropolitan cities (urban areas) since 1985 while Metropolitan suburbs keep growing – increasing by an average of 2.9 million movers a year.

When it comes to the distance a homeowner moves versus a renter, it might be surprising to some is that the geographical mobility patterns among both renters and owners are very similar. At 60.7 percent owner-occupied units and 61.7 percent renter-occupied, the vast majority of movers in both housing types moved within the same county from 2015 to 2016. A higher percentage of homeowners moved to a different county within the same state (25.2 percent) versus 19.7 percent of movers that rented in the same year. Not surprisingly, movers from abroad account for a higher percentage of renter-occupied units (4.9 percent) rather than owner-occupied units (1.9 percent).

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey 2016
(1) Nonmetro areas included Micropolitan Statistical Areas and rural countries

Mobility in America Part 3 | Migration to Metro and Nonmetro Areas

Once a country on the move, mobility reached a historical low from 2015 to 2016 with only 11.2 percent of the population moving to a different home or apartment. This compares to a 1948 peak of 20.3 percent. The third and final factoid series on Mobility in America looks at where people are moving. Are more movers simply relocating to a nearby apartment or home? Is there migration into the cities from the suburbs? Are some more people moving to sunshine states? The second factoid in this series focuses on migration to Metro and Nonmetro Areas.

In general, the majority of movers tend to move within the same area or type of area with movers from nonmetro areas somewhat more likely to leave for the big cities. Conversely, Only 3.5 percent of the metro movers left urban life for the country or smaller towns (nonmetro areas) from 2015 to 2016. However, 27.3 percent of movers living in non metro areas left for a metropolitan area. The small percentage of immigrants overwhelmingly chose metro areas, 93.8 percent.

As expected, metro areas have the most movers by far, with 64 percent of movers electing to stay within the same metropolitan area. At 16.7 percent, the next highest group of movers traded   one metro area for another metro area between 2015 and 2016, while 9.3 percent of movers continued to reside in a nonmetro location.

 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2016 Annual Social and Economic Supplement (1) Nonmetro areas included Micropolitan Statistical Areas and rural counties

Mobility in America Part 3 | Where People Are Moving

Despite the dramatic decline in the percent of Americans moving and changing residences over the last 60+ years, the patterns of mobility have shifted much less than might be expected. Once a country on the move, mobility reached a historical low from 2015 to 2016 with only 11.2 percent of the population moving to a different home or apartment. This compares to a 1948 peak of 20.3 percent. The third and final factoid series on Mobility in America looks at where people are moving. Are more movers simply relocating to a nearby apartment or home? Is there migration into the cities from the suburbs? Are some more people moving to sunshine states? The first factoid in this series focuses on mobility by year and the how far movers have relocated.

While the percent of Americans moving has changed overtime, how far away they tend to move has not. Looking at the last 28 years, in 1987, 17.8 percent of the population moved compared the 11.2 percent from 2015 to 2016. Since that time, a slightly higher percentage of movers are moving to a different county within the same state – an increase from 18.3 percent (1987) to 21.3 percent (2016). Meanwhile, while fewer movers are relocating to a different state – down from 16.7 percent to 13.6 percent.

Both long distance and shorter nearby moves have fallen by similar rates over the past 60+ years. Between 2015 and 2016, 61.6 percent of all movers relocated within the same county compared to 67 percent in 1948. Of the total population, just 6.9 percent of Americans made shorter moves last year within the same county, down from 13.6 percent in 1948. Different county and out of state moves dropped to just 3.9 percent of the total population in 2016.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Geographical Mobility Rates, by Type of Movement 1948-2016

Industry Sales by Quarter | 2010 Q3 to 2017 Q3 | Bedding Industry

The third quarter is typically the Bedding’s industry’s highest volume period each year. Bedding sales climbed to $4.04 billion 2017 Q3, an increase of 4.8 percent over the same third quarter last year. Growth compared to the previous Q2 of this year reached 10 percent reflecting the increased third quarter volume. Year-to-date, the third quarter is up 3.8 percent over the first three quarters of 2016 totaling $11.34 billion.


The slow but steady growth in the Bedding industry this year is reflected in the quarter over quarter increases.  In the third quarter of this year, bedding picked up some steam finishing 4.8 percent over the same quarter last year, 2016 Q3.

Third quarter 2017 year-to-date bedding sales totaled $11.37 billion, up 3.8 percent over the same period last year. 

Source:  Impact Consulting Services, Inc. industry model  2017 Q1 and Q2 results been revised.

Industry Sales by Quarter | 2010 Q3 to 2017Q3 | Furniture & Bedding

The furniture and bedding industry picked up a little steam in the third quarter with furniture and bedding sales up 4.11 percent over the same quarter last year, 2016 Q3. Industry sales of $25.42 billion received a slight bump at the tail end of the quarter as Hurricane Harvey victims began the process of replacing furniture in heavily impacted areas. Compared to the previous quarter of this year, 2017 Q2, third quarter industry sales were up 3.05 percent. Third quarter year-to-date furniture and bedding sales reached $74.29 billion, up 3.22 percent over the same period last year.

Furniture (excluding Bedding) in the third quarter increased 3.97 percent versus the same quarter in 2016 totaling $21.38 billion. Compared to the second quarter of this year, furniture sales grew a modest 1.82 percent. Year-to-date furniture sales excluding bedding reached $62.92 billion, up 3.12 percent over the first three quarters of last year.

The Bedding industry also saw a larger increase, with estimated sales of $4.04 billion for the third quarter, up 4.83 percent over the same quarter last year.  The third quarter is typically bedding’s highest volume period. Compared to the previous Q2 of this year, industry sales were up 9.9 percent.  Year to date, bedding sales increased 3.77 percent over the first three quarter of last year totaling $11.37 billion.

The third quarter this year saw the largest quarter over quarter growth in six quarters for furniture and bedding. Industry sales increased 4.11 percent over the third quarter of last year, breaking the $25 billion one quarter dollar mark. Compared to the previous Q2 of this year, sales of $25.42 billion were up 3.05 percent.

Furniture (excluding Bedding) increased 3.97 percent in 2017 Q3 versus the same third quarter of 2016 with sales of $21.38 billion. This figure was up 1.82 percent over last quarter, 2017 Q2.

Bedding 2017 Q3 sales totaled $4.04 billion, up 4.83 percent over third quarter last year and 9.9 percent over the previous second quarter of this year. The third quarter  is typically bedding’s highest volume quarter each year.

Consumer Spending Today | Consumer Spending for Furniture and Home Furnishings Products

This is the final factoid in a series of four factoids detailing the growth of consumer spending since the recession. Although Healthcare spending still leads the way, Durable Goods, including Furniture and Home Furnishings products, have steadily increased their share of post-recession consumer dollars since 2009.

After a gradual post-recession recovery, consumer spending continues to grow an average of 3.8 percent a year since 2009. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Personal Expenditures Survey, Consumer Spending by U.S. Households totaled $12.76 trillion last year – increasing 3.9 percent from 2015.

In this first quarter of this year at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, Consumer Spending on furniture alone totaled $109.7 billion dollars. Major appliances is the second largest home furnishings spending category at $41.4 billion.

Although window coverings is the smallest of the home furnishings categories, it has experienced the largest post-recession surge in consumer spending increasing 42.1 percent. Carpets and other floor coverings have surged since 2015 with a total 32.2 percent growth since 2009. Both furniture and home furnishings accessories also experienced over 30 percent growth post-recession at 31.8 and 31.7 percent growth respectively.

Source: Personal Consumption Expenditures, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)

Consumer Spending Today | Growth in Consumer Spending for Housing and Selected Household Expenditures | Indexed Growth 2009 to 2017 Q1

This is the third factoid in a series of four factoids detailing the growth of consumer spending since the recession. Although Healthcare spending still leads the way, Durable Goods, including Furniture and Home Furnishings products, have steadily increased their share of post-recession consumer dollars since 2009. This is despite the fact that last year for the first time Americans spent more money on health care than the total amount spent on living in and taking care of their homes -- $2.95 trillion versus $2.91 trillion.

Since the end of the 2009 Recession, household insurance has surged as the fasted growing housing expense – up 67.8 percent but tapering off over last year. Both furniture and home Furnishings have maintained a steady upward trajectory – averaging 3.5 percent and 3.7 growth each year, but still lag slightly behind overall consumer spending growth of 3.8 percent. Televisions and appliances have been outpaced by other household spending. Household utilities have stabilized with little increase.

As Americans are staying put longer, household maintenance spending has grown 29.2 percent over the last five years. Last year, rents and mortgages saw a high growth of 4.7 percent as supply tightened in many areas. Consumer spending slowed during the first quarter of this year in all household spending categories, except televisions/video and audio.

Source: Personal Consumption Expenditures , Bureau of Labor Statistics

*Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)

Consumer Spending Today | Top Consumer Spending Categories (more than 3% of total spending) | 2009 vs 2017 Q1 Annual

This is the second factoid in a series of four factoids detailing the growth of consumer spending since the recession. Although Healthcare spending still leads the way, Durable Goods, including Furniture and Home Furnishings products, have steadily increased their share of post-recession consumer dollars since 2009.

With Healthcare last year finally exceeding total Housing expenditures, including furnishings and maintenance, the trend is on track to continue this year. Total combined Housing and Home Furnishings expenditures lost 1 point share of all spending since 2009, mainly through declining utility expenses and slow to recover rents early in the recovery. Home furnishings products have generally held consumer spending share with the exception appliances and televisions. Meanwhile Healthcare has increased its share 1.5 points in the same time period – up to 22.5 percent of total spending the first quarter of this year. Total consumer dollars spent on housing and furnishings trailed closely at 21.6 percent in 2017 Q1. Meanwhile Americans are eating out more, with corresponding spending on food consumed at home declining.

Rents and mortgage payments make up 73 percent of consumer spending on housing, while the biggest chunk of healthcare was paid to hospitals (7.9%) and outpatient services (7.8%). Actual medical health insurance totaled 1.3 percent of consumer spending.

Source: Personal Consumption Expenditures, Bureau of Labor Statistics *Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)

Consumer Spending Today | Growth of Durable Goods | 2000 to 2017 Selected Years

This is the first factoid in a series of four factoids detailing the growth of consumer spending since the recession. Although Healthcare spending still leads the way, Durable Goods, including Furniture and Home Furnishings products, have steadily increased their share of post-recession consumer dollars since 2009. This is despite the fact that last year for the first time Americans spent more money on health care than the total amount spent on living in and taking care of their homes -- $2.95 trillion versus $2.91 trillion.

After a gradual post-recession recovery, consumer spending continues to grow an average of 3.8 percent a year since 2009. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Personal Expenditures Survey, Consumer Spending by U.S. Households totaled $12.76 trillion last year – increasing 3.9 percent from 2015.

Between 2000 and 2009, consumer expenditures for Services surged as Durable Goods lost ground during the Great Recession. However, since the recession’s end in 2009, spending for Durable Goods has seen the largest increase with Nondurables declining as a percent of total consumption.

Both Durable Goods and Nondurable goods lost tremendous ground from 2000 to 2009 as spending on Services skyrocketed by 53.2 percent while consumer spending on Housing and Healthcare services steadily increased. On a positive note, in the years following the recession (2009 to 2017Q1), Durable Goods have surged growing 40.6 percent compared to 27.8 percent for Nondurables and 33.7 percent for Services.

Source: Personal Consumption Expenditures, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)