Smith Leonard Shares Furniture Insights for July

August 9, 2026  by Karen Parrish in Business Strategy, Industry   

New orders were up 13% in May 2026 compared to the prior month (after being down 4% last month), and up 8% compared to May 2025. Year to date, new orders are now up 2% over 2025. May 2026 shipments were flat compared to April 2026 but up 1% from May 2025. Year to date, shipments are now flat with 2025.

May 2026 backlogs were up 5% compared to both April 2026 and May 2025. Receivable levels were down 4% from April 2026, and down 5% compared to May 2025. Inventories were down 1% from April 2026, but up 3% from May 2025. Payrolls were down 3% compared to April 2026, but up 1% compared to May 2025. Employee levels are again materially in line with recent months and the downward trend from prior year.

NATIONAL

Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased by 1.4 points to 90.8 (1985=100) in July, down from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 3.6 points to 114.9, its third consecutive monthly decline.

The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—remained unchanged at 74.7.

“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in July, continuing a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index was less positive for a third consecutive month while the Expectations Index remained in negative territory. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions and, to a lesser extent, perceptions of the current labor market both softened. Looking ahead, consumers anticipate little improvement in business conditions over the next six months, but expectations for the labor market were slightly less negative. Expectations for household incomes moderated but remained optimistic overall.”

Homebuying and auto purchasing expectations continued their upward trend on a six-month moving average basis. Among consumers’ planned purchases of durable goods within six months, furniture and smartphones remained the most desired items, but expectations for smartphones moderated in July. Spending plans for TV sets, refrigerators, and washing machines rose on a six-month moving average basis.

Housing

Existing-home sales decreased by 2.4% month-over-month and increased 2.8% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales report. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, and declined in the Midwest, South and West. Year-over-year sales rose in the Midwest, South and West and were flat in the Northeast.

“The back-and-forth in monthly home sales activity, driven by mild fluctuations in mortgage rates, shows how sensitive home buyers are to affordability conditions,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, job gains—more than half a million since the beginning of the year—will continue to provide support for the housing market.”

Total Existing-Home Sales for June

2.4% decrease in existing-home sales month-over-month.

2.8% increase in existing-home sales year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million.

Single-Family Homes in June

2.4% decrease in sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.73 million, up 3.3% from June 2025.

$446,400: Median home price, up 1.8% from last year.

Condominiums and Co-ops in June

2.7% decrease in sales month-over-month with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 360,000

2.7% decrease from last year.

$380,000: Median price, up 1.6% from June 2025.

Mortgage Rates

6.49%: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in June, according to Freddie Mac, up from 6.44% in May and down from 6.82% one year ago.

Sales of new single-family houses in June 2026 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.6 percent above the May 2026 rate of 618,000, and is 5.6 percent below the June 2025 rate of 665,000.

Compared to June 2025 on a seasonally adjusted basis, sales were down 5.6% overall with sales also down 1.4% in the South, down 24.6% in the West, and down 1.2% in the Midwest, but up 16.0% in the Northeast.

Gross Domestic Product

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 3.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the first
quarter.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 5.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.6 percent in the first quarter.

THOUGHTS FROM ASSURANCE PARTNER MARK LAFERRIER

This month, the participants in our stats program saw new orders increase compared to the prior year for a second consecutive month, marking the first such trend since June-July 2025. We also saw an increase in new orders of 13% compared to the prior month, reversing the 4% decrease in April 2026, and driving the year-to-date comparisons to an overall increase of 2%.

During its recent July meeting, the Fed opted to again keep rates steady under new leadership based upon their assessment of prevailing economic trends. Tariffs, both new and old, continue to be top of mind, as new rates went into effect in late July and affected companies figure out how operations will be impacted.

Consumer confidence, housing, and other economic indicators also remain mixed as uncertainty driven in part by current world events continues. However, recent financial and other reporting from public companies in the industry seems generally positive, so hopefully the positive trends will continue through the remaining summer months.