NRF Reports Black Friday Will Be BIG This Year, and It Has Already Begun

November 20, 2025  by HFBusiness Staff in Business Strategy, Industry   

I think I know, actually. Every year, retailers are fighting for the same dollar. They try to get the jump on each other by pushing back their BIG, HUGE, NOT TO MISS sales to be sure to get part of the consumer’s bank. It completely makes sense, based on the economic climate we are living in. With prices going up as tariffs kick-in, and the recent government shutdown finally getting people back to work, and the economy itself being just a little bit wobbly.

Every day when I open my inbox, click on a website, or turn on the TV or radio I am pummeled by a deluge of Black Friday sale ads. Honestly, unless they are industry related, I quickly delete them all. Why? Because there is only so much money to go around, which is the point, isn’t it? Everyone wants our dollar, so these ads need to either, really stand out as something one-of-a-kind, must have, or offer me something I really need. Or both.

So, this Black Friday, which let’s face it, has already started and will continue to go on through Christmas, and it will just phase from sale to sale, until it’s LAST CHANCE BEFORE THE HOLIDAYS,  be sure to stand out. Give the consumers what they really want, which if it is me, it’s something I absolutely MUST have at an EXCELLENT price.

But, in all seriousness, hats off to all of the designers, manufacturers, retailers, salespeople, executives and delivery drivers. The holiday is no joke. It’s the last chance to grab these dollars before tax season starts, and right now, people want to spend and celebrate.

The National Retail Federation reports that as of early November, 58% of consumers said they have already started their holiday shopping, in line with the last five years. On average, holiday shoppers have completed around one-quarter (26%) of their planned purchases.

About two-thirds (67%) plan to embrace the spirit of giving and engage in at least one charitable activity, with the top ways to give including donating financially to a charity or cause (32%), donating items to a charity or cause (31%) or purchasing from retailers or brands that donate to social causes (20%).

“Many Americans consider shopping to be an important part of their Thanksgiving holiday and one of the best ways to get deals on gifts,” Prosper Insights & Analytics Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said. “Of those planning to take advantage of sales, over half say it’s because the deals are too good to pass up. Others point to the tradition or simply say they like to start their holiday shopping during the long (Thanksgiving Holiday) weekend.”

A record 186.9 million people are planning to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year, according to the consumer survey released today by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. The figure is up more than 3 million total shoppers from the previous record of 183.4 million last year.

“The holidays are an important part of many consumers’ budgets, and that trend is especially true this season,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said. “As a record number of shoppers are expected this Thanksgiving weekend, retailers are prepared to meet the needs of consumers with great value and convenience.”

While promotions will span the entire five-day holiday weekend, Black Friday remains the most popular day to shop, with 70% of shoppers (130.4 million). The second most popular day remains Cyber Monday, with 40% (73.9 million) of consumers expected to shop the Monday following Thanksgiving. Of the 36% (67 million) of potential Saturday shoppers, 80% say they are considering shopping in order to support local businesses and Small Business Saturday.

So, dig in. Things may be a little precarious in the economy right now, but it is, in fact The Most Wonderful Time of the Year!