Smith Leonard Releases October Home Furnishings Insights

November 4, 2025  by Karen Parrish in Business Strategy, Industry   

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
New orders were down 3% compared to the prior month of July 2025 (following the 13% increase from June 2025). New orders were also down 3% in August 2025 compared to August 2024. However, year to date through August 2025, new orders remain down 1% compared to 2024.

Shipments were up 5% compared to the prior month of July 2025. However, shipments were down 6% in August 2025 compared to August 2024. Year to date through August 2025, shipments remain down 1% compared to 2024. August 2025 backlogs were flat compared to August 2024, and down 1% from July 2025.

Receivable levels were up 1% from July 2025, but down 2% from August 2024. Inventories were up 3% in August 2025 from both the prior month and year, which may be indicative of tariffs impacting costs and ordering patterns. Inventories and employee/payroll levels are again materially in line with recent months and the prior year.

Due to the ongoing US Government shutdown, much of the monthly economic data normally presented in this report has not been updated. View the article on-line for last month’s data, included in blue text for reference.

National Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® inched down by 1.0 point in October to 94.6 (1985=100) from an upwardly revised 95.6 in September.

The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—gained 1.8 points to 129.3.

The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined by 2.9 points to 71.5. Expectations have been below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025.

“Consumer confidence moved sideways in October, only declining slightly from its upwardly revised September level,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “Changes to the individual subcomponents were also limited and largely cancelled each other out. The Present Situation Index regained some strength after September’s drop. Consumers’ view of current business conditions inched upward, while their appraisal of current job availability improved for the first time since December 2024. On the other hand, all three components of the Expectations Index weakened somewhat. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions while optimism about future income retreated slightly.”

Guichard added, “Consumers’ write-in responses were led by references to prices and inflation, which continued to be the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy. References to tariffs declined further this month but remained elevated. Mentions of jobs and employment eased somewhat after picking up in September. The write-in comments remained mostly negative overall, but less so than in previous months. References to US politics were up notably, with the ongoing government shutdown mentioned multiple times as a key concern.”

Purchasing plans for homes weakened for the month, but the overall six-month trend is rising. Consumers’ plans to buy big-ticket items were little changed overall, with a lot of variation across different types of appliances and electronic goods. Still, overall, plans to buy big-ticket items have started to pick after weakening earlier in the year.

Housing

Existing-home sales increased by 1.5% month-over-month in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. The Report provides the real estate ecosystem, including agents and homebuyers and sellers, with data on the level of home sales, price, and inventory.

Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest and South, and remained flat in the West.

“As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.”

“Inventory is matching a five-year high, though it remains below pre-COVID levels,” Yun added. “Many homeowners are financially comfortable, resulting in very few distressed properties and forced sales. Home prices continue to rise in most parts of the country, further contributing to overall household wealth.”

Total Existing-Home Sales for September
1.5% increase in existing-home sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million.

4.1% increase in sales year-over-year.

Single-Family-Homes Sales in September
1.7% increase in sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.69 million, up 4.5% from September 2024.

$420,700: Median home price in September, up 2.3% from last year.

Condominiums and Co-ops Sales in September
No change month-over-month or year-over-year; sales remain at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 370,000 units.

$360,300: Median price, down 0.6% from September 2024.

Mortgage Rates
6.35%: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in September, according to Freddie Mac, down from 6.59% in August and up from 6.18% one year ago.

Thoughts from Mark LaFERRIERe, SENIOR ASSURANCE PARTNER
“It was certainly great to see many of you in High Point last month for Market. It was again a Market dominated by discussions of tariffs and the economy as whole. While opinions of individual exhibitors varied, conditions for companies working with designers and less cost-conscious customers were generally favorable.”

“On the flip side, many companies serving the lower end of the market were getting opportunities and at bats with customers they may not have otherwise seen. Most buyers also seem to understand that tariffs in some form or fashion are here to stay, and they are ready to move forward.”

“But regardless of what end of the market you’re in, there was one overriding consensus, and that is that retail is slow. This is really no surprise given the consumer confidence reports from the last few months, coupled with the current government shutdown, as well as the year-to-date results of our survey participants.”

Laferriere concluded, “The recently announced deal with China will hopefully bring some clarity to the industry, and along with continued interest rate cuts, and business in Washington eventually getting back to “normal,” some stability to the overall economy that will encourage consumers to spend at retail.”