Smith Leonard Reports September 2025 Furniture Insights

October 5, 2025  by Karen Parrish in Business Strategy, Industry   

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
New orders were up 6% compared to the prior month of June 2025 (following the 9% decrease from May 2025). New orders were also up 13% in July 2025 compared to July 2024. Accordingly, year to date through July 2025, new orders are now down only 1% compared to 2024 (down 2% last month).

Shipments were down 2% compared to the prior month of June 2025. However, shipments were up 3% in July 2025 compared to July 2024. Year to date through July 2025, shipments remain down 1% compared to 2024 (same as last month). July 2025 backlogs were down 4% compared to July 2024, but up 2% from June 2025. Receivable levels were up 2% from June 2025, and flat with July 2024.

Inventories and employee/payroll levels are again materially in line with recent months and the prior year. However, the gradual decline in employees over the last 6 months, continues to imply companies are allowing some normal attrition to occur without rushing to find replacements.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.6 points in September to 94.2 (1985=100), down from 97.8 in August. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 7.0 points to 125.4.

The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—decreased by 1.3 points to 73.4. Expectations have been below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025.

“Consumer confidence weakened in September, declining to the lowest level since April 2025,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The present situation component registered its largest drop in a year. Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low. This is consistent with the decline in job openings. Expectations also weakened in September, but to a lesser extent. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions but optimism about future income increased, mitigating the overall decline in the Expectations Index.”

Housing

Existing-home sales remained essentially the same in August, ticking down by 0.2% from July, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing- Home Sales Report. The Report provides the real estate ecosystem, including agents and home buyers and sellers, with data on the level of home sales, price, and inventory.

“Home sales have been sluggish over the past few years due to elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, mortgage rates are declining, and more inventory is coming to the market, which should boost
sales in the coming months.”

Total Existing-Home Sales for August

- 0.2% decrease in total existing-home sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million.

- 1.8% increase in sales year-over-year.

Mortgage Rates

- 6.59%: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in August, according to Freddie Mac, down from 6.72% in July and 6.50% one year ago.

Thoughts from Mark LaFERRIERe, SENIOR ASSURANCE PARTNER

“More shifting of the landscape this month with the announcement of the Section 232 tariff on upholstered furniture imports, while we seemingly await additional announcements from the results of the 50-day investigation into other furniture categories including imported case goods. The timing of these announcements will again make for an interesting Fall High Point Furniture Market creating both challenges and opportunities for exhibitors.”

“Economic data was again mixed, though there are some positive trends with housing which will potentially accelerate with the long-awaited Fed interest rate cut in September and more cuts expected to come through the end of the year. Consumer confidence slipped again this month, which may be further impacted by the government shutdown and related activity, though presumably this will be short-lived.”

“As to our own stats program, it was good to see the year over year increases in both new orders and shipments this month which bring the July 2025 year-to-date results almost even with the prior year and provide a glimmer of hope for the remainder of the year and into 2026.”

Laferriere concluded, “We look forward to seeing many of you here in High Point in a couple weeks. Safe travels.”