Daily News
From Home Furnishing Business
Smith Leonard Share Furniture Insights for July
July 31,
2023 by HFBusiness Staff in Business Strategy, Industry 
The monthly survey from Smith Leonard for July was released and results of the survey for May continued to indicate slow business. While orders in May were up 15% over May 2022, a good portion of that increase appeared to be caused by certain larger retailers making large commitments for certain parts for the rest of the year.
But 64% of the participants did post increases in orders so that was a good sign. Still, year-to-date, new orders were down 13% with 78% of the participants reporting a decline in year-to-date orders.
Shipments were down 18% from May 2022 and down 15% year-to-date. The year-to-date numbers were a bit more mixed as 63% reported a decrease in year-to-date shipments. Backlogs fell slightly from April and were down 61% from last year. Backlogs seem to be back to more normal levels now considering the built-in price increases and new order rates.
Sales at furniture and home furnishings stores in June were up 1.4% over May but down 4.6% compared to June 2022. Sales at these stores were down 3.2% year to date.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.2% in June, after increasing 0.1% in May. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 3.0% before seasonal adjustment.
The closing thoughts from the consultants at Smith Leonard summarize, “To us, it seems difficult for the overall economy to really know what the expectations should be. Consumer confidence is up, though that report still mentions recession in spite of the employment numbers being really good. The second quarter GDP report was positive and back in a more normal range, yet the Leading Economic Indicators report predicts we are in a recession beginning the third quarter through first quarter 2024.”
“The consumer price index keeps retreating in spite of gas prices rising, though we wonder what the real situation is when the price of a $10 item goes up 8% creating 8% inflation. Then if inflation tames to 3%, doesn’t that really mean the $10 item went to $10.80, and then at 3% the item would be $11.12.”
“Anyway, we are not economists, so we leave it up to you to know what all this means to your business. As we have hammered the point so many times, this is not one industry but a whole bunch of different industries rolled into one.”
“Each of you, in effect, has your own. It is great where the total industry is rising, but when the tables turn as they seem to have done recently, you have to look at your own results in comparison to what our numbers say, then take a realistic look at why you are better or worse, and why.”
They conclude, “Let’s hope that if it is a recession, it is one that we hardly notice as we hope to return to more normal times soon.”