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Factoids

Factoids offer brief snapshots of current topics pertinent to the Furniture industry based on our on-going research. Increase your grasp of current trends, consumer attitudes, and shifts within the industry through solid statistics and concise insight.

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Factoids

Millennials: The Changing Face of Young Adults in the Furniture Industry Median Individual Income by Age Group In Selected Years: 2004 to 2014

This is the second factoid in a series of five factoids that explore demographically how the Millennials have altered the population, income, education and household characteristics of both the Under 25 and 25 to 34 age groups over a ten-year period. Millennials, Americans born roughly between 1982 and 2000, account for more than one quarter of the nation’s population. As of 2015, these 17 to 34 year olds numbered 83.1 million and have surpassed the 75.4 million Baby Boomers.

The economy has had a major impact on Millennials. Many of them still live with their parents, have crushing student loan debt and are underemployed at best and unemployed at worst. Over the past ten years individual incomes have yet to reach pre-recession levels. Latest median income figures from the Census Bureau report Millennials ages 25 to 34 earn $31,219 annually, down over 10 percent from a peak of $34,459 in 2007. Many of the Under 25 age group Millennials are currently part-time employed college students, underemployed graduates or workers in unskilled low paying jobs.

The next factoid will show that while the Millennials are the most college-educated generation thus far, an overwhelming number of young adults are still looking for work.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

Millennials: The Changing Face of Young Adults in the Furniture Industry Population Growth by Age Group 2004 to 2014

This is the first factoid in a series of five factoids that explore demographically how the Millennials have altered the population, income, education and household characteristics of both the Under 25 and 25 to 34 age groups over a ten-year period.

Millennials, Americans born roughly between 1982 and 2000, account for more than one quarter of the nation’s population. As of 2015, these 17 to 34 year olds numbered 83.1 million and have surpassed the 75.4 million Baby Boomers. The Millennial generation continues to grow as young immigrants move into the U.S., while deaths among Baby Boomers exceed the number of older immigrants. These children of the Boomers will emerge into full adulthood in 2017 as the largest consumer generation in history.

As a whole, the number of 15 to 34 year olds has grown 9.5 percent from 2004 to 2014 (most recent population data). As shown in Table A, the glut of Millennials is in the 20 to 24 age group – totaling 22.9 million in 2014 after jumping 12.6 percent in ten years. Ages 25 to 29 have also grown dramatically, increasing 15.7 percent from 19 million to 22 million. While dipping down to 19 million in 2008, age group 30 to 34 has climbed up to 21.5 million. The Millennial stragglers are in the top end of the 15 to 19 age group. Once the highest young adult population in 2006 and 2007, most have since aged into their twenties leaving this age group relatively flat at a 3.7 percent growth over the ten-year period.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

Do Election Years Spur Industry Growth? U.S. Presidential Election Year Vs. 1st Year in Office: Furniture Industry Sales: Growth Over the Previous Year

This is the final factoid in a series of five factoids exploring the possible connection between election years and a healthy economy. The previous four factoids studied the positive effect election years have had on furniture sales, consumer confidence, gross domestic product and unemployment rates from 1997 to 2016. 

While the majority of election years in recent times have ended on a positive economic note for the furniture industry, did the momentum carry over to the first year of a president’s new term? The continued upswing did occur in the 1980’s and 1990’s, but since the turn of the century, furniture industry growth during a president’s first year in office did not surpass the election year preceding it. 

During the 80s and 90s, with the exception of Ronald Reagan’s second term, the first year of a president’s four-year term experienced higher furniture industry growth than the previous election year. In recent elections, the economic momentum of the election year did not carry over to the first year of a presidency. No president’s first year of the term exceeded the previous election year’s growth. If this trend continues into 2017, the Furniture Industry will not experience quite the growth of 2016. 

 

 

Do Election Years Spur Industry Growth? Unemployment Rate U.S. Presidential Terms (1997 to 2016)

This is the fourth factoid in a series of five factoids exploring the possible connection between election years and a healthy economy. Looking back over the past 20 years and the elections those years encompassed yields interesting results. With the exception of the Great Recession in 2008, a possible heightened sense of confidence and hope for the future during election years may partly be responsible for higher furniture sales growth, consumer confidence, gross domestic product and lower unemployment rates.

Like the highs in Consumer Confidence, the Unemployment Rate was at its lowest during the Bill Clinton years. The Great Recession caused the unemployment rate to skyrocket near 10 percent, but by the election year of 2012, the rate has decreased to 8.1 percent and continues to fall almost a percentage point each year. Currently at 4.9, the Unemployment Rate looks to be continuing the trend of other election years with the lowest unemployment of the presidential term. 

While the majority of election years in recent times have ended on a positive economic note for the furniture industry, did the momentum carry over to the first year of a president’s new term? The final factoid of this series will compare election years to the 1st year of a president’s term.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Do Election Years Spur Industry Growth? U.S. Presidential Terms (1997 to 2016) Gross Domestic Product Growth over the Previous Year

This is the third factoid in a series of five factoids exploring the possible connection between election years and a healthy economy. Looking back over the past 20 years and the elections those years encompassed yields interesting results. With the exception of the Great Recession in 2008, a possible heightened sense of confidence and hope for the future during election years may partly be responsible for higher furniture sales growth, consumer confidence, gross domestic product and lower unemployment rates.

The Gross Domestic Product or GDP is defined as the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. The GDP has made its largest gains during election years with the exception of the Great Recession. In both Bill Clinton’s 2nd term and George W. Bush’s 1st term, the value of U.S. goods and services increased by more than 6.5 percent from the previous year. It remains to be seen whether 2016 will follow the same trajectory. The fourth factoid of this series will show the drop in unemployment rates during election years.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

Do Election Years Spur Industry Growth? U.S. Presidential Terms (1997 to 2016) Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100) Average Monthly

This is the second factoid in a series of five factoids exploring the possible connection between election years and a healthy economy. Looking back over the past 20 years and the elections those years encompassed yields interesting results. With the exception of the Great Recession in 2008, a possible heightened sense of confidence and hope for the future during election years may partly be responsible for higher furniture sales growth, consumer confidence, gross domestic product and lower unemployment rates.

Consumer Confidence was highest during the Clinton years – topping out at 139 during his last year in office (an election year). Taking a big dip post 9/11, Consumer Confidence dropped to 80 in 2003 before climbing back up to 96 during George W. Bush’s last year of his final term. During the Great Recession, Consumer Confidence hit its lowest at 45 during Barack Obama’s first term but grew 22 percentage points to 67 in the Election Year of 2012. Consumer Confidence has continued to grow over Barack Obama’s second term, but at 95 in March 2016, it is still below the 1985 base of 100. Up next, election years and gross domestic product gains.

Source: Conference Board

Do Election Years spur Industry Growth? U.S. Presidential Terms (1997 to 2016) Furniture Industry Sales Growth Over Previous Year

This is the first factoid in a series of five factoids exploring the possible connection between election years and a healthy economy. Looking back over the past 20 years and the elections those years encompassed yields interesting results. With the exception of the Great Recession in 2008, a possible heightened sense of confidence and hope for the future during election years may partly be responsible for higher furniture sales growth, consumer confidence, gross domestic product and lower unemployment rates.

In presidential elections over the last 20 years since 1997, the last year of each term with one exception, has produced the highest furniture industry sales growth of all four years of that presidency. The one exception was the second term of George W. Bush which ended during the Great Recession. The last year of each term is also the Election Year for next term, as the nation is experiencing now in 2016. If the pattern continues, 2016 should grow in excess of the 5.3% furniture sales growth of last year.

This factoid shows the furniture industry growth by year over 20 years encompassing five presidential terms, including the current 2016 election. Note that the industry’s highest growth was in the last years of Bill Clinton’s second term and George Bush’s first term. Our next factoid will show the link between election years and consumer confidence.

Source: Impact Consulting Services/ FurnitureCore.com

Markets Finally Recovering to Pre-Recession 2007 Sales Levels

This is the final factoid in a series of four factoids detailing the Furniture Industry’s recovery from the Recession to finally meet and exceed pre-recession peak sales of 2007. The majority of the positive growth in 2015 occurred in large Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s), while many Micropolitan Statistical Areas (Micro SA’s) and Rural Areas are still struggling to make a full recovery.

Segmenting MSAs by industry sales range gives another perspective of market performance. Not surprisingly, the MSAs with Industry Sales over $1 Billion are having the highest percent of sales exceeding 2007 levels in 2015. With only 14 of the 401 total MSAs, the highest sales bracket exceeded pre-recession sales in 10 of those markets which accounted for 73.7 percent of those industry sales.

MSA’s in the top two industry ranges (over $500 Million) were responsible for roughly 63 percent of total sales surpassing pre-recession levels in 2015. All in all, the MSA’s within the largest industry sales ranges have pushed the Furniture and Bedding Industry out of the recession.

Source: Impact Consulting Services Proprietary Model

Markets Finally Recovering to Pre-Recession 2007 Sales Levels Industry Sales in 2015 by Region

This is the third factoid in a series of four factoids detailing the Furniture Industry’s recovery from the Recession to finally meet and exceed pre-recession peak sales of 2007. The majority of the positive growth in 2015 occurred in large Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s), while many Micropolitan Statistical Areas (Micro SA’s) and Rural Areas are still struggling to make a full recovery.

Breaking up the MSA markets by region shows that the Northeast is still struggling to return. It is the only region in which majorities of the MSA’s are falling short of pre-recession sales. While over 50 percent of MSA’s in the Midwest and South have recovered in industry sales, the West is topping the country with over 70 percent of MSA’s exceeding 2007 peak sales.

The percent of markets by region exceeding 2007 sales does not exactly correlate with the percent of region sales by market type. Despite the fact that less than half of MSA’s in the Northeast had sales in 2015 that exceeded 2007, the New York-Jersey City-White Plains MSA (a division of the broader New York CBSA) helped pushed percent of sales in 2015 past the 2007 level for the region. Likewise in the Midwest, the Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights MSA division has yet to fully recover – impacting the poorer sales performance of its region.

Markets Finally Recovering to Pre-Recession 2007 Sales Levels Industry Sales in 2015 Percent by Market Type

This is the second factoid in a series of four factoids detailing the Furniture Industry’s recovery from the Recession to finally meet and exceed pre-recession peak sales of 2007. The majority of the positive growth in 2015 occurred in large Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s), while many Micropolitan Statistical Areas (Micro SA’s) and Rural Areas are still struggling to make a full recovery.

In 2015, the industry as a whole finally exceeded 2007 peak sales but many markets are yet to fully recover. Out of 937 total markets, 533 have surpassed 2007 sales and 404 are still fighting their way back. Forty-two percent of MSA’s fell short of 2007 levels and Micro SA’s have similar numbers with 43.7 percent below the peak sales of 8 years before.

The Percent of Sales chart shows the percent of industry sales in markets that are thriving versus the markets that are still playing catch-up. The markets exceeding 2007 peak levels account for over 61 percent of industry sales with MSA’s and Micro’s have similar outcomes.

Source: Impact Consulting Services Proprietary Model

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