September 15,
2017 by Jane Chero in General 
With Mobility in America at an all-time historical low and only 11.2 percent of people moving from 2015 to 2016, what drives the current movers and leads them to change residence? This is the second factoid in series of four factoids that explores the “why” people have moved since 2000 and takes note of both the growing and declining trends.
The previous factoid gave an overview of the major broad categories of reasons to move; family, housing, and jobs. This factoid centers around family as a major reason for moving.
Both Divorce and Marriage rates have been on a steady decline since 2000 – lowering a “change in marital status” as a key reason for moving. Down from a divorce rate of 4.0 in 2000 (rate per 1,000 total population) to 3.2 in 2014, more people are staying married. On the flip side, less people are getting married – decreasing from a marriage rate of 8.2 in 2000 to 6.9 in 2014.
Luckily more people moved to establish their own households from 2015 to 2016 – up to 12.2 percent of all movers from 10.4 percent in 2016. Although slow to leave Mom and Dad’s home, more Millennials are venturing out on their own and forming households. This increase should continue steadily over next five years as Millennials age.
According to the National Association of Realtors, between 2008 and 2016 America added an average of 835,000 new households per year. For 50 years prior, it was 1.3 million per year.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement
September 8,
2017 by Jane Chero in General
With Mobility in America at an all-time historical low and only 11.2 percent of people moving from 2015 to 2016, what drives the current movers and leads them to change residence? This is the first factoid in series of four factoids that explores the “why” people have moved since 2000 and takes note of both the growing and declining trends.
Major Reasons to Move
For 42.2 percent of the 35.1 million movers from 2015 to 2016, the biggest reason to move continues to be a desire for new or different housing. Recovering from the recession, job related moves are back up to just over 20 percent of movers since 2006-2007. Meanwhile, over a quarter of American movers (27.4 percent) changed residence last year due to a change in family status
Age of Movers
Young adults ages 20 to 29 dominated all categories for reasons to move in terms of numbers of adult movers -- the principle reason for moving being housing-related (3.7 million movers). These young movers are starting new households, moving into their own apartments or homes or changing residences for various reasons. Job-related moves also dominated this age group more than any other with 3.0 million moving for employment reasons.
For adults 30 to 44 (a 15-year age span), housing-related moves were by far more important than any other category (3.6 million movers) and almost double employment reasons.
Adults 45 to 64 (20 year span) are a large part of the U.S. population and contain a chunk of baby boomers on the back end. However these older adults were most likely to stay put with 2.4 million movers citing housing-related reasons for moves and only 1.1 million moving because of jobs.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement
September 1,
2017 by Jane Chero in General
This is the final factoid in a series of four factoids that give a snapshot of current movers and what factors might determine mobility at this time in America – age, marital status, owning versus renting, and poverty status. With only 11.2 percent of people moving from 2015 to 2016, American mobility is at an all-time record low. The previous three factoids focused on age of movers, marital status, and owners vs. renters, while this factoid centers around mobility by poverty status.
Although 13.5 percent of the population is below 100% of poverty, 22.6 percent of movers were these lowest income households. Americans at 150% of poverty (incomes over $36,450 for a family of four) accounted for 66.4 percent of movers from 2015 and 2016 and 79 percent of nonmovers.
Americans with higher household incomes (above $36,450 for a family of four) are choosing to stay in place – only 9.6% moving in 2016. The poverty category with the lowest income had the highest percentage of Americans move over 2015 to 2016, 18.6 percent of those below 100% of poverty moved over last year.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, General Mobility by Poverty Status *Poverty level categories add to 100%
August 25,
2017 by Jane Chero in General
This is the third factoid in a series of four factoids that give a snapshot of current movers and what factors might determine mobility at this time in America – age, marital status, owning versus renting, and poverty status. With only 11.2 percent of people moving from 2015 to 2016, American mobility is at an all-time record low. The previous two factoids focused on age of movers and marital status while this factoid centers around mobility of homeowners versus renters.
Just over one-third of the population lives in renter-occupied units. As expected, renters of housing units change residence much more often than owners of housing units. Of the 108.2 million renters from 2015 to 2016, 24.8 millions were movers (22.9 percent), compared to just 5 percent of owners. Only 10.3 million people in owner-occupied units moved last year, while 196.4 million homeowners remained in the same residence. Renters accounted for more than two thirds (70.6 percent) of movers from 2015 to 2016. The next and final factoid of this series will look at the mobility of Americans based on Poverty Status.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, General Mobility by Tenure
August 18,
2017 by Jane Chero in General
This is the second factoid in a series of four factoids that give a snapshot of current movers and what factors might determine mobility at this time in America – age, marital status, owning versus renting, and poverty status. With only 11.2 percent of people moving from 2015 to 2016, American mobility is at an all-time record low. The previous factoid focused on age of movers, while this factoid centers around marital status.
Marital Status plays a major role in a person’s desire, ability and necessity to move. Not surprisingly, 17.2 percent of separated people moved in 2016 with never-married people following close behind at 15.8 percent. Eleven percent of divorced individuals moved last year, while only 7.4 percent of married individuals changed residence. Widowed individuals tend to stay put with only 5.1 percent in the category moving.
Att 37.4 percent, single, never married people were the highest category of movers from 2015 to 2016. In the same time span, married individuals were the greatest portion of nonmovers at 41.5 percent. The next factoid in this series will look at the mobility of owners versus renters.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, General Mobility by Marital Status
August 11,
2017 by Jane Chero in General
Once a nation of movers, Americans are increasingly less likely to sell their homes or leave their apartments and move across the country or even down the street. With only 11.2 percent of people moving from 2015 to 2016, American mobility is at an all-time record low. Since the 1950’s, mobility has plummeted almost 50 percent – from 21.2 percent of the population changing residence down to 11.2 percent in 2015 to 2016. While the previous decade’s stagnant change in residence can be owed partly to the economy, this downturn has been steady for over forty years.
This series of factoids gives a snapshot of current movers and what factors might determine mobility at this time in America – age, marital status, owning versus renting, and poverty status. Factoid #1 begins the series focusing on the age of movers.
By far, younger adults moved the most from 2015 to 2016. Twenty-three percent of 20 to 24 year olds and 20.1 percent of 25 to 34 year olds moved last year – double that of 35 to 44 year olds (11.1 percent). With increasing age, the percentage of an age group’s mobility declined significantly. For example, less than 4 percent of adults over age 55 moved between 2015 and 2016.
Fifty percent of all persons changing residence 2015 to 2016 were split evenly between children (24.9 percent) and young adults 25 to 34 (25 percent). Of the 35.1 million movers, 23.7 million (67.3 percent of all movers) were under the age of 35.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Geographic Mobility Rates, General Mobility by Age
August 6,
2017 by Jane Chero in General
Like other furniture industry products, bedding growth has been slow in the first two quarters of this year. 2017 Q2 Bedding sales are up 2.3 percent over the same quarter last year reaching $3.65 billion. Compared to last quarter (2017 Q1), sales are up only 1.25 percent. Year-to-date, the second quarter is up 2.2 percent over 2016.
The slow growth in 2017 in the Bedding industry is reflected in the quarter-over-quarter performance. Bedding sales in the second quarter this year are up 2.3 percent quarter over quarter totaling $3.65 billion.
Second quarter 2017 year-to-date bedding sales totaled $7.25 billion, up 2.2 percent from the same period last year.
Source: Impact Consulting Services, Inc. industry model. 2016 and 2017q1 results have been revised.
July 28,
2017 by Jane Chero in General
The furniture and bedding industry continued slow growth in the second quarter with sales up 2.14 percent over the same quarter last year. Combined furniture and bedding reached $24.48 billion in Q2, up from first quarter sales of $24.07 billion (1.68 percent growth).
Furniture (excluding Bedding) in the second quarter increased 2.11 percent compared to the same quarter in 2016 totaling $20.47 billion. Compared to the first quarter of this year, furniture sales grew a modest 1.76 percent. Year-to-date sales reached $41.3 billion, up 2.09 percent over the first two quarters of last year.
The Bedding industry has also slowed. In the second quarter of 2017, bedding sales were up 2.3 percent over the same quarter of last year and up only 1.25 percent over the previous 2017 Q1. Second quarter sales reached $3.65 billion with year-to-date sales totaling $7.25 billion, up 2.16 percent over the first two quarters of 2016.
Percent Growth
Quarter-over-quarter growth shows the slowing of the industry beginning in the second quarter of last year and continuing through the second quarter of this year. In both the first and second quarters, industry sales grew 2.1 percent to $48.55 billion year-to-date. Q2 sales reached $24.48 billion compared to Q1 at $24.07 billion.
Furniture (excluding Bedding) increased 2.14 percent in 2017Q2 versus the same first quarter of 2016 with sales of $20.83 billion. This figure was up 1.68 percent over the same quarter last year
Bedding 2017 Q2 sales totaled $3.65 billion, up 2.3 percent over second quarter of 2016 and 1.25 percent over the previous first quarter of this year.
Source: Impact Consulting Services, Inc. industry model 2016 and 2017q1 results been revised.
July 21,
2017 by HFBusiness Staff in General
This is the final factoid in a series of four factoids detailing the continued growth of the post-recession Housing Industry. After years of fighting back from the housing bubble pop, the Housing Industry is finally on the mend and appears to be getting healthier by the year. Although still shy of 2007 pre-recession levels, housing appears to be catching up fast despite a couple of stumbles last year.
As the housing industry grows, vacancy rates among both Rentals and Homeowner units continue to decline. Rental vacancy rates at 6.9 percent are at their lowest in over 30 years, giving way to high rents. Meanwhile homeowner unit vacancies have also continued to drop to 1.7 percent in 2016 – the lowest in over 10 years.
The vacancy rate of rentals is lowest inside metro areas, both in principle cities and in the suburbs, compared to outside of metro areas. Inside metro areas for both urban (principal cities) and suburban areas have similar vacancy rates at 6.7 percent and 6.3 percent respectively. These rates have continued to fall over the last seven years. Meanwhile, vacancies outside metropolitan areas are much higher at 9.4 percent last year and have shown little improvement over the last few years.
For homeowner units, vacancy rates in the suburbs of metro areas are low at 1.5 percent in 2016 and only slightly higher at 1.9 percent in principal cities of metro areas. Vacancy rates outside metro areas are higher at 2.3 percent. Pent up demand from Millennials aging into their prime homeownership years combined with low vacancy rates have set the stage for good housing growth in the near future.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership
July 14,
2017 by HFBusiness Staff in General
This is the third factoid in a series of four factoids detailing the continued growth of the post-recession Housing Industry. After years of fighting back from the housing bubble pop, the Housing Industry is finally on the mend and appears to be getting healthier by the year. Although still shy of 2007 pre-recession levels, housing appears to be catching up fast despite a couple of stumbles last year.
Despite the growth in new and existing home sales last year as shown in Factoids 1 and 2, New Housing Construction, specifically, multi-unit apartment construction fell considerably. After solid gains since 2011, combined growth of single and multi-unit construction went negative last year – falling 0.5 percent to 1.17 million units. Due to booming housing starts in January of this year, 2017 began 9.6 percent higher with a seasonally annualized average of 1.29 million units.
Single-family construction has maintained its upward trajectory since the Great Recession. However, 2016 single family units totaling 747,000 are still 23.1 percent below peak 2007 levels. Meanwhile multi-family construction at 392,000 units in 2016 are well below the 451,000 in 2015.
The flat growth in new construction was not a result of declining construction of single-family units. Growth has continued unstopped in recent years – increasing 7.5 percent from 2015 to 2016. Up 8.1 percent annualized, the first month of 2017 builds on the momentum.
The slowdown of total new housing construction came solely on the shoulders of multi-family apartments and condominiums where construction fell by 13 percent in 2016. On a positive note, authorized permits for the first month of 2017 are up 13.7 percent.