June 15,
2018 by Laurie Northington in General 
Although unemployment is down and an additional 10.5 million people are expected to be employed over the 2016 to 2026 decade, the diminishing rate of labor force growth due to an aging population and other changing demographics is projected to further slow the U.S. labor force participation rate. This is the first factoid in a series of six factoids detailing the projected demographic shifts in the workforce as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in 2017 Q4.
Labor Force Methodology
“Labor force projections are based on expectations of the future size and composition of the population, as well as on the trends in labor force participation rates of different age, gender, race, and ethnic groups, a total of 136 categories. BLS converts population projections to the civilian noninstitutional population concept, a basis for labor force projections. BLS develops participation rate projections using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) conducted for BLS by the Census Bureau” -Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
How will the Labor Force look by 2026? And will there be enough workers to meet the specific needs of American industry? In 1996 all Baby Boomers were within the prime 25 to 54 age segment – roughly 72 percent of the total labor force. Thirty years later, projected in 2026, Baby Boomers will be 62 to 80 years of age and many will have exited the job market – leaving just 63.5 percent of the labor force between 25 to 54 years old. Between 2016 and 2026, the other significant change to the workforce will be among 35 to 44 year olds as the Millennials dominate this age group, growing from 20.6 percent of the workforce in 2016 to 22.2 percent by 2026. They will be the only age group under 65 to gain share of the workforce.
Industries are changing and growing alongside the population. The retail industry is adapting to a changing economic structure and many brick and mortar stores are forecasted to decline in employment over the 10-year period 2016 to 2026. Among these are traditional furniture stores, as well as electronic, department and clothing stores. Furniture Stores are expected to take a 10.2 percent negative hit in employment over the 10 years to 2026. Meanwhile the success of Home Furnishings Stores is expected to boost this channel’s employment 7.4 percent. In the same time period, Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses are expected to gain 23.4 percent more employees. The next article in this series will focus on changes in the Labor Force by Sex.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics *projected
June 8,
2018 by Laurie Northington in General
Since the turn of the century, diversity in America has continued to grow – impacting the political climate, education and the economy. One common thread in the home furnishings industry is that all Americans need and purchase home furnishings, regardless of ethnicity. However, understanding the components of diversity adds perspective to our retail landscape. This is the final factoid in a series of five factoids detailing the changes in population between 2010 and 2016. *see factoid one of this series for The Census Bureau race classifications.
Net Foreign Immigration
Net Foreign or International Immigration accounts for 40 percent of the population increase 2010 to 2016 growing the U.S. population by 2 percent. During that time foreign immigrants added an additional 5.8 million people over six years. In 2016 alone the U.S. experienced a Net Foreign Immigration of almost one million (999,163 persons) compared to 703,824 in 2011.
White Hispanics represented the largest chunk of immigration in the early part of this decade representing 46.4 percent all Net Foreign Immigration in 2011. However, by 2016 that number had fallen significantly to 24.1 percent.
The biggest growth in Net Foreign Immigration has come from Asians who represented 24.3 percent of all immigrants in 2011 but 39.9 percent in 2016. In the six-year period, 2.3 million Asians immigrated to the U.S. compared to 1.3 million White Hispanics, 1 million Whites (Non Hispanic) and 851,355 Blacks.
For furniture and home furnishings retailers, the broadening ethnic diversity of U.S. households presents unique opportunities for products that address the cultural tastes and preferences of these new residents.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
June 1,
2018 by Laurie Northington in General
Since the turn of the century, diversity in America has continued to grow – impacting the political climate, education and the economy. One common thread in the home furnishings industry is that all Americans need and purchase home furnishings, regardless of ethnicity. However, understanding the components of diversity adds perspective to our retail landscape. This is the fourth factoid in a series of five factoids detailing the changes in population between 2010 and 2016. *see factoid one of this series for The Census Bureau race classifications.
Natural Increase: Births Minus Deaths
For the six-year period, the Birth to Death Ratio (the number of births per death) totaled 1.5 for the entire United States. Both younger ethnic groups in the U.S., the White Hispanic population and Asian population have much higher rates of births versus deaths – 5.8 and 3.4 in a six-year period.
The aging of the White (Non Hispanic) group has made an impact on population. Whites still represent 61 percent of the population and 50.1 percent of all births. However numbers of deaths are overwhelming among Whites (Non Hispanic) totaling 78.8 percent of all deaths 2010 to 2016. This negative Natural Increase trend among Whites (Non Hispanic) is expected to continue for years to come. Meanwhile, the younger White Hispanic group 2010 to 2016 represented 22 percent of all births, but only 5.7 percent of deaths. The next and final factoid in this series will focus on Net Foreign Immigration.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
May 25,
2018 by Laurie Northington in General
Since the turn of the century, diversity in America has continued to grow – impacting the political climate, education and the economy. One common thread in the home furnishings industry is that all Americans need and purchase home furnishings, regardless of ethnicity. However, understanding the components of diversity adds perspective to our retail landscape. This is the third factoid in a series of five factoids detailing the changes in population between 2010 and 2016. *see factoid one of this series for The Census Bureau race classifications.
A resident population grows by two methods: (1) Natural Increase, which is the net result of births minus deaths, and (2) Net Foreign Immigration. Of the 14.4 million additional residents over the six-year period since 2010, 59.3 percent of the growth can be attributed to Natural Increase and 40.7 percent to Foreign Immigration.
Natural Increase
For the White (Non Hispanic) population, Natural Increase (births minus deaths) has been negative since the early 2000s meaning more have died than were born. Between 2010 and 2016, Whites (Non Hispanic) experienced a net natural decrease of 397,697 residents. As the aging Baby Boomers continue to die in record numbers and younger Millennials delay childbirth, this decline is expected to escalate.
By far, the much younger White Hispanic population has the greatest net result of births minus deaths accounting for over half of the Natural Increase of the total population occurring between 2010 and 2016.
May 18,
2018 by Laurie Northington in General
Since the turn of the century, diversity in America has continued to grow – impacting the political climate, education and the economy. One common thread in the home furnishings industry is that all Americans need and purchase home furnishings, regardless of ethnicity. However, understanding the components of diversity adds perspective to our retail landscape. This is the second factoid in a series of five factoids detailing the changes in population between 2010 and 2016. *see factoid one of this series for The Census Bureau race classifications.
The contribution to population growth from 2010 to 2016 came primarily from the White Hispanics, 41.2 percent of the total. But the one-year growth rates in 2010 to 2011 and more recently 2015 to 2016 illustrate the growing contribution of Asians to the population who represented 14.8 percent of the growth 2010 to 2011 but jumped to 23.9 percent 2015 to 2016.
The 14.4 million new residents to the U.S. population 2010 to 2016 account for an overall 4.7 percent growth. Persons of 2 or more races was the fastest growing category increasing 21.4 percent to a total of 8.5 million residents or 2.6 percent of the population. Asians, at only 5.7 percent of the population in 2016, increased 20.8 percent in the six-year period and White Hispanics grew 13.3 percent. Whites (Non Hispanic) and Blacks/African Americans experienced the lowest growth at 0.3 percent and 6.8 percent respectively.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
May 11,
2018 by Laurie Northington in General
Since the turn of the century, diversity in America has continued to grow – impacting the political climate, education and the economy. One common thread in the home furnishings industry is that all Americans need and purchase home furnishings, regardless of ethnicity. However, understanding the components of diversity adds perspective to our retail landscape. This is the first factoid in a series of five factoids detailing the changes in population between 2010 and 2016.
In the timeframe of six years 2010 to 2016, the U.S. resident population grew 4.7 percent – from 281.4 million to 323.1 million. All races grew in number but only White (Non Hispanics) have lost share of the population.
Whites (Non Hispanic) represent 61.1 percent of the population in 2016, down from 69.1 percent in 2000 and 63.9 percent in 2010. Meanwhile, White Hispanics already surpassed Blacks and African Americans in number by 2010 as the second largest ethnic group. In 2016 White Hispanics grew to 15.6 percent of the population compared to 13.3 percent for Blacks and African Americans. Asians, the fastest growing ethnic group in the U.S., grew from 3.6 percent to 5.7 percent of the population in 2016.
The U.S. added 14.4 million additional residents between 2010 and 2016. By far, White Hispanics added the most at 5.9 million followed by Asians at 3.2 million, and Black/African Americans at 2.7 million. Of note is that while mixed-race persons represent only 2.6 percent of the U.S. population, in the six-year period they grew by an additional 1.5 million persons. Meanwhile, Whites (Non Hispanic) added just 643,174 residents to the total population in six years.
Census Bureau Race Classifications
White (Non Hispanic) encompasses Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. Per the Census Bureau classification, people from the Middle East are considered White. There are an estimated 3.6 million Arab-Americans in the United States, but that doesn’t include other ethnic groups that could put the total Middle Eastern and North African population above 10 million. According to the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey about one million people from the Middle Eastern region are first-generation immigrants to the United States.
White Hispanics are not considered a “race” by the U.S. Census Bureau but an “ethnicity”. For the purpose for this report, White Hispanics have been broken out into its own classification.
Asians include persons from the Far East, South Asia, and Asian Indian.
Other race or ethnic classifications are Black/African American, American Indian or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian Island or Other Pacific Island, and 2 or More Races.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
May 4,
2018 by Laurie Northington in bedding
After a rocky 2017 for the Bedding industry due to consolidation and an increased internet presence, data is still very preliminary for the first quarter of this year. Initial estimates of $3.9 billion put 2018 Q1 sales up 2.8 percent over 2017 Q1. Compared to the previous fourth quarter of 2017, sales are up 9 percent reflecting Bedding’s seasonality.
Preliminary data indicates slow Bedding sales growth in 2018 Q1. Sales of $3.9 billion are a 2.8 percent increase over 2017 Q1.
First quarter 2018 Bedding sales totaled $3.9 billion, up 2.8 percent over the same period last year.
Source: Impact Consulting Services, Inc. industry model 2017 industry sales have been revised. 2018 q1 is preliminary.
April 27,
2018 by Laurie Northington in bedding, General
After a strong fourth quarter, combined furniture and bedding sales took their typical cyclical dip compared to the fourth quarter of 2017, but maintained decent growth compared to the same quarter 1 of last year. Industry sales totaled $26.66 billion in for the first three months of 2018, up 4.5 percent compared to the same quarter last year, but down 2 percent from 2017 Q4.
Furniture (excluding Bedding) in the first quarter increased 4.8 percent versus the same quarter 1 in 2017 totaling $22.76 billion. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2017, furniture sales fell 3.6 percent.
Although furniture sales typically dip in the first quarter, bedding sales tend to increase compared to the last quarter of the previous year. Industry sales for Bedding are preliminary for the quarter as data is mixed, but initial estimates of $3.9 billion put 2018 Q1 sales up 9.0 percent over 2017 Q4. Compared to the previous same quarter 1 of last year, sales are up 2.8 percent.
The first quarter in 2017 maintained sustained quarter over quarter growth for furniture and bedding. Industry sales of $26.66 billion reflects an increase of 4.5 percent over 2017 Q1. Compared to the fourth quarter of last year sales are down 2 percent.
Furniture (excluding Bedding) increased 4.8 percent in 2018 Q1 versus the same first quarter of 2017 with sales of $22.76 billion. This figure is down 3.6 percent over last quarter, 2017 Q4.
Bedding sales are still under review, but preliminary results show 2018 Q1 Bedding at $3.9 billion, up 2.8 percent over the same quarter 1 of 2017. Compared to last quarter, 2017 Q4, sales are up 9.0 percent.
April 20,
2018 by Laurie Northington in General
This is the final factoid in a series of four factoids detailing the migration of the U.S. population to populous cities, creating a Big and Small America. From the 2016 Population Estimates Report done by the U.S. Census Bureau, over 50 percent of residents live in just 143 counties (Big America) with the remaining 50 percent spread out over a vast area encompassing 2,999 additional counties (Small America).
State Growth
Fourteen states have no Big counties: Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, New Hampshire, South Dakota, North Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming. By comparison, there are 17 states with a majority of residents living in big counties. Massachusetts and New Jersey have the highest percent of Big counties – 50 percent and 47.6 percent respectively. California has the most big counties at 17, followed by Florida and Texas, both with 12. In contrast, states with the highest number of small counties are Texas (223) and Georgia (141), while states with the highest mid-sized (medium) counties include Florida (21), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (19), and California (17).
Total U.S. population grew only 0.7 percent last year, with immigration contributing about 45 percent of that growth. Although population growth was slight, 84.3 percent of states experienced increases, leaving 15.7 percent with a decrease (eight states). Utah and Nevada topped the list of states with over 1 percent growth – both increasing by 2 percent. Two highly populated states, Florida and Texas also continued to grow.
Population in three big northern states, New York, Pennsylvania, and Illinois decreased alongside less populated states like Wyoming, Vermont, and West Virginia.
While some manufacturing jobs may return to the U.S., the divide between Big and Small America should accelerate, with metropolitan areas continuing to spread. Along with a majority of the immigrant population settling in the south and west, Americans in general will continue to gravitate to big counties that have warmer climates, job opportunities, and desirable cost of living.
April 13,
2018 by Laurie Northington in General
This is the third factoid in a series of four factoids detailing the migration of the U.S. population to populous cities, creating a Big and Small America. From the 2016 Population Estimates Report done by the U.S. Census Bureau, over 50 percent of residents live in just 143 counties (Big America) with the remaining 50 percent spread out over a vast area encompassing 2,999 additional counties (Small America).
Population Density
The staggering population density in the Northeast is a current key geographic characteristic in the U.S., notably in the New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ MSA five key counties. With the exception of San Francisco County, CA, the Northeast contains the most congestion of people with Boston, MA, Philadelphia, PA and Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA’s all containing over 11,000 people per square mile.
Meanwhile, the vast areas of California, Nevada and Arizona make the density in their counties less than .05 percent as dense as the Northeast. For example, New York County (New York City) has almost 72,000 people per square mile living in the county, compared to 2,500 in Los Angeles County, the largest county in population in the United States.
Immigration to Big Counties
Slightly less than one million people immigrated to the U.S. last year, down 3.6 percent from 2015. They represented about 45 percent of U.S. population growth. As shown in Table I, big counties were the major recipients with 74.1 percent of immigrants residing in highly populated areas.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Population Estimates, Population Density = the number of persons per square mile in the county