NRF Revises 2015 Forecast Downward

July 24, 2015  by in Economic News, Furniture Retailing, Industry   

NRF forecasted in February that 2015 retail sales would grow 4.1 percent. The revision lowers the forecast to 3.5 percent.

The trend falls in line with what the retail segment experienced in 2014.

The retail trade association expects sales to steadily increase through the remainder of the year. 

NRF calculated that sales grew 2.9 percent during the first half of 2015 and are expected to grow at a more positive pace of 3.7 percent over the next five months. The estimates include general retail sales and non-store sales, and exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurants. Revised non-store sales are now expected to grow between 6 percent and 8 percent, still within the 7 percent to 10 percent range originally forecast.

“For years, consumer spending has been hampered by lackluster growth in our economy,” said Matthew Shay, president and CEO of NRF. “Much of that blame can be shifted to Washington where too much time has been spent crafting rules and regulations that almost guarantee negative consequences for consumers and American businesses alike. Until the government and our elected leaders get serious about enacting policies that lift consumer confidence, create economic growth and spur investment, we will continue this trend of solid, but not exceptional, performance in the economy.” 

Shay said he is optimistic that consumer spending in the second half of the year will increase thanks in part to improvements in the housing and labor markets, lower energy costs and consumer confidence.

“A confluence of events, including treacherous weather throughout the United States through most of the winter, issues at the West Coast ports, a stronger U.S. dollar, weak foreign growth and declines in energy sector investments all significantly and negatively impacted retail sales so far this year, and thus have changed how future sales will shape up for the rest of 2015,” said Jack Kleinhenz, NRF chief economist.