This is the second in a series of four factoids exploring the impact of consumer confidence on a rising demand for consumer products, especially durable goods. Consumer confidence, measured monthly by The Conference Board, is “a barometer of the health of the U.S. economy from the perspective of the consumer”.
Although confidence tends to fluctuate more strongly than actual economic data, the CCI (Consumer Confidence Index) is a lagging indicator in response to several economic catalysts, among them the health of our jobs market, growth in wages, and the overall global political and financial climate.
More than any other indicator, Consumer Confidence tends to mirror the growth in personal income with the CCI responding more sharply to economic downturns. Employment bottomed out in 2010 at an index of 94.4 –6 percent below 2007. (2007 = 100) Since then, the number of employed workers has increased by 8 percent and is currently at an index of 102.5. Personal Income stayed flat during the Recession but quickly gained momentum after 2009 and has increased to 126.8 index – a growth of 26 percent.
Next week’s factoid will show a direct correlation between Consumer Confidence and Personal Consumption, specifically durable goods.
Source: The Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Index, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Note: Previously issued 2015 Q2 estimates have been revised.
Source: Impact Consulting Services, Inc. industry model.
The chart above shows quarter-over-quarter industry performance from 2012 Q3 through the third quarter of 2015.
Third quarter combined Furniture and Bedding industry sales of $23.32 billion were a 5.2 percent improvement over the same Q3 in 2014. Compared to last quarter (2015 Q2) sales improved 1.3 percent
Furniture (excluding Bedding) increased 5.18 percent in 2015 Q3 versus the same quarter last year with sales of $19.62 billion – up from $18.66 billion in 2014 Q3.
Bedding continued steady quarter-over-quarter growth with sales of $3.69 billion, up 5.3 percent over third quarter sales last year.
This is the sixth in a series of six Factoids exploring the future of the Housing Industry. The housing market has picked up steam over the last two years in terms of both existing home sales and new housing starts and a shift in the demographics of available homebuyers should spur more growth in the next 10 to 20 years.
Housing prices and apartment rental rates have been on a spiraling upward trend in many parts of the country. Housing prices (as shown in Factoid #5 of this series) are up 32% from 2009 to 2014.
The apartment market is being flooded with Millennials. The rapid jump in home prices over the past few years is adding to a rising rental market as many potential home buyers are turning to apartments and other rental housing. Monthly rent rates have increased from $1,042 in 2010 to $1,239 in 2015 year to date – a jump of 19 percent. Over the last five years, rates on rentals have increased an average of 3.5 percent a year.
Source: Zillow Real Estate Market Report, Zillow Rent Index (ZRI)
This is the fifth in a series of six Factoids exploring the future of the Housing Industry. The housing market has picked up steam over the last two years in terms of both existing home sales and new housing starts and a shift in the demographics of available homebuyers should spur more growth in the next 10 to 20 years.
As Millennials age into their home buying years, the question will become, “Will they be able to afford a home?” Housing prices and apartment rental rates have been on a spiraling upward trend in many parts of the country. If rates continue to grow faster than wages, buyers and renters will be facing housing’s ever-growing demand on their incomes which in turn impacts their ability to not only buy furniture, but all consumer goods and services.
This Factoid shows the rising cost of home prices from 2002 to 2014. At the peak of the housing bubble in 2007, the median price of a home was $244,950. With the subsequent housing market crash, the price fell 12 percent to $215,650 at the bottom of the recession in 2009. Since 2009, housing prices have climbed dramatically higher than pre-Great Recession days – up 32 percent in 2014 at $284,825. Median home prices have increased an average of 8.2 percent a year since 2011.
In the next and final factoid of this series, we will take a look at the rising cost of rent for Millennials.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
This is the first in a series of six Factoids exploring the future of the Housing Industry. The housing market has picked up steam over the last two years in terms of both existing home sales and new housing starts and a shift in the demographics of available homebuyers should spur more growth in the next 10 to 20 years.
This year, the Millennials are expected to surpass the Baby Boomers and become the largest living generation. The Millennials are generally defined as children of the Baby Boomers born between the early 1980’s and the early 2000’s. The oldest Millennials are entering their 30s and the youngest still pre-teen. Over the next 10 to 20 years, Millennials will pour into the housing and apartment markets and many of the Baby Boomers (currently ages 51 to 69) will be downsizing to smaller homes, single-family retirement communities, or group housing.
The population will grow and change over the next ten years with the surge of Millennials and the skyrocketing of Baby Boomers in the over 65 age group. Boomer growth over 65 will total 37.8% - increasing at a rate of 3.3% a year from 2015 to 2025.
The next factoid of this series will show in further detail the projected pouring of Millennials into home buying age groups over the next decade.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Projections of the Population of the U.S
This is the first in a series of three Factoids detailing the Furniture industry’s growth in share of the three major home furnishings product categories – Furniture, Major Household Appliances, and Televisions. Furniture has lost share over the last 14 years, slightly to Major Appliances, but sharply to the rapid innovation in Televisions.
Furniture and Bedding continues to claim the largest share of the three home furnishings product categories at 55.4% but has lost 6.8 market share points, primarily to televisions. Since 2000, total personal consumption of furniture products has grown 28% (2014 Q2 annual rate) to $97.1 billion, the lowest growth rate of the three home furnishings categories.
Appliances have also lost market share slightly to Televisions, falling from 24.8% to 22.8% between 2000 and 2014 Q2. However the Major Appliance category has gained slightly on Furniture and Bedding. In terms of growth, the $39.5 billion Major Appliance industry has grown 32% compared to Furniture’s 28%.
The innovation in Televisions has been the major home furnishings consumer expenditure story early on, growing from 13.1% of the home furnishings category to 21.8% over the 14-year period. However, next week’s Factoid will show that Television growth peaked in 2008 and has remained stagnant, while Furniture and Appliances have continued to grow.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Personal Consumption Expenditures”