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Factoids

Factoids offer brief snapshots of current topics pertinent to the Furniture industry based on our on-going research. Increase your grasp of current trends, consumer attitudes, and shifts within the industry through solid statistics and concise insight.

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Factoids

Housing Choices in Today’s Market Age of All Occupied Housing Units Year Current Housing Units Were Built


This is the second in a series of five factoids studying the recovering housing market by delving into the primary factors that determine a consumer’s home choices. Not only faced with the decision to rent or buy, households planning to move are making choices based on age, size and cost of housing structures. 

Now that people are moving, what are the housing options? Consumers initially face the choice of purchasing or moving into a new versus old property. And with housing starts slow to recover from the recession, households are increasingly faced with an aging housing industry. This factoid shows the year current housing was built for all occupied housing units. (Note: Rental versus owner-occupied units is not shown separately as data showed no significant difference between the two.)

Particularly startling is that 28.7 percent of all housing is 55 plus years old and 55.4 percent over 35 years old.  The majority of the housing inventory in 2014 (54.5 percent) was built between 1960 and 1999. Only 2.2 percent of housing units were built in the last four years and a total of 16.8 percent since 2000. Many current and potential homeowners are living in or considering older homes and face ongoing costs of renovations and repairs – potentially dipping into new furniture expenditures.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS)


Housing Choices in Today’s Market Mobility: Percentage of U.S. Housing Units Occupied by Years 2014

 

This is the first in a series of four factoids studying the recovering housing market by delving into the primary factors that determine a consumer’s home choices. Not only faced with the decision to rent or buy, households planning to move are making choices based on age, size and cost of housing structures. 

During the Recession, people generally put moving on hold. As the economy has improved, mobility has slowly increased and more households are changing residences. 60.6 percent of total U.S. housing units were moved into since the year 2000 and 38.4 percent in the last five years.

Apartments are particularly transient with 70 percent of apartment units moved into within that same five-year period. As expected, owner-occupied housing units are more stable with 20 percent of these units moved into in the last five years, and 56.7 percent since 2000.

Next week’s factoid will describe the aging of the housing inventory.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS)


Housing Shifts from Owners to Renters Financial Characteristics of Householders 2009 to 2014

 

This is the final factoid in a series of three factoids detailing a rise of renters in the Housing Industry over the past five years. Since 2009, renting has increased among householders of all ages, marital status, and income level. 

Overall, apartment dwelling is increasing across all income levels 2009 to 2014. Households with incomes under $100,000 have been slowly migrating away from homeownership toward apartments. For incomes $50,000 to $99,999, ownership decreased by 6.0 percent while rentals increased 23.9 percent. The number of housing units with income under $50,000 declined in total 3.6 percent, with owner occupied units taking the hit. This income group makes up 65.8 percent of rental units.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS)


Housing Shifts from Owners to Renters: Household Characteristics 2009 to 2014

 

This is the second in a series of three factoids detailing a rise of renters in the Housing Industry over the past five years. Since 2009, renting has increased among householders of all ages, marital status, and income level. 

The mix of household characteristics between owners and renters has changed very little in five years. As expected, married-couple families are the majority of owner occupied housing units – accounting for 60 percent in 2014. Surprisingly, householders living alone make up 27.8 percent of all housing units.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS)


Housing Shifts from Owners to Renters: Householders by Age 2009 to 2014

 

This is the first in a series of three factoids detailing a rise of renters in the Housing Industry over the past five years. Since 2009, renting has increased among householders of all ages, marital status, and income level. 

In the five year period 2009 to 2014 every age group saw an increase in the number of households renting versus owning. In addition, age groups under 55 years all experienced double-digit decreases in the number of homes owned.

Overall households in total grew 3.2 percent; however, owner-occupied units fell 1.3 percent while apartment and home rentals grew 11.4 percent. For homeownership, the largest segment continues to be the 65 and over age group, while the Under 35 group is the largest rental group.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS)

 

Consumer Confidence Drives Consumer Spending Indexed Growth of Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, and Existing Home Sales 2007 to 2015 YTD

 

This is the final factoid in a series of four factoids exploring the impact of consumer confidence on a rising demand for consumer products, especially durable goods. Consumer confidence, measured monthly by The Conference Board, is “a barometer of the health of the U.S. economy from the perspective of the consumer”.

A major piece of the consumer spending pie is housing, especially new home sales. Economic conditions drive the homebuilding industry and once building slows, it takes a while for housing starts to catch up once the consumer starts to regain confidence.

New Home Sales plummeted alongside Consumer Confidence as the Housing Industry went bust during the Recession taking almost two years to bottom out after the confidence began to recover. A drop of 61 percent in New Home Sales occurred from 2007 to 2011. As the confidence in the economy picked up, Housing Starts ignited and New Home Sales are finally on a steady rise – growing 68 percent from 2011 but still only reaching a 66.2 index in 2015 YTD. Existing Home Sales also felt the effects of a decrease in Consumer Confidence – dropping down to 74.1 index in 2010, but were quicker to recover due to an already present housing inventory.

Source: The Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Index, U.S. Census Bureau


Consumer Confidence Drives Consumer Spending Index Growth of Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods 2007 to 2015 YTD

 

This is the third in a series of four factoids exploring the impact of consumer confidence on a rising demand for consumer products, especially durable goods. Consumer confidence, measured monthly by The Conference Board, is “a barometer of the health of the U.S. economy from the perspective of the consumer”.

Consumer Confidence is perhaps the prime external driver of consumer spending. Population and household formations form the base for growth in spending; however, Consumer Confidence drives demand, especially when it comes to durable goods.

New Motor Vehicles follows a similar trajectory as Consumer Confidence with personal consumption dropping dramatically from 2007 to 2009 (down 29 percent) before climbing an average of 8 percent to a 2015 YTD index of 119. Also dipping in 2009, although only 15.8 points compared to 29 points for New Motor Vehicles, consumption of Furniture and Home Furnishing items rebounded by 23 percent from 2009 to 2015ytd. After peaking in 2008, the Video and Audio Equipment Industry experienced a slight downturn due to the Recession but overall has been flat for the past 8 years.

Confidence has a lesser impact on non-durable goods, like food and clothing, which tend to avoid the peaks and valleys of confidence swings more so than durable goods.

The next and final factoid in this series will show the relationship between Consumer Confidence and Housing – the other piece of the consumer spending pie. 

Source: The Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Index, Bureau of Economic Analysis


Consumer Confidence Drives Consumer Spending Consumer Confidence Index 2007 to 2015 YTD (Annual Average)

This is the first in a series of four factoids exploring the impact of consumer confidence on a rising demand for consumer products, especially durable goods. Consumer confidence, measured monthly by The Conference Board, is “a barometer of the health of the U.S. economy from the perspective of the consumer”. With a surge in Housing Starts, flattening of home electronics, and possible waning of new automobile sales, the Furniture Industry should benefit with the rise of confident consumers. 

About 70% of the Gross National Product is consumer spending, and one of the prime drivers of spending is Consumer Confidence. The Consumer Confidence Index increased to 103.0 in September, up from the 2015 low in July of 91. The all-time low in confidence occurred in February 2009 when it fell to a recession low of 25.3.  (Source: The Conference Board, Consumer Confidence Index)

Consumer Confidence took a nosedive after a high of 103.4 in 2007 – dropping to an average of 45.4 in 2009. Since the Great Recession, confidence in the economy has steadily increased a yearly average of 9 index points – resulting in a total jump of 53.3 points from 2009 to 2015 year to date (annual average).

Next week’s factoid will show the tie between Consumer Confidence and Employment and how the health of the U.S. job market affects the Consumer Confidence Index.

Imports Still Growing as China Devalues Yuan: Imports of Household Furniture, Imports of Wood and Upholstery, U.S. Exports by Top 3 Countries 2002 to 2015Q2

Total U.S. Imports of Household Furniture by Country 2002 to 2015 YTD


While the furniture industry in China has been threatened over the past few years due to rising labor costs and labor shortages, U.S imports continue to increase from China alongside a growing Vietnam Wood manufacturing presence. The recent devaluing of the Yuan could go a long way to strengthen China’s hold on U.S.  

China’s exports to the U.S. have grown to over 60 percent of total U.S. imports – up 20.6 points from 2002 to 2015 Q2.  Since the peak of the recession in 2009, the value of imports from China has grown 52.4 percent to $14 billion.

Most noticeable is Canada’s decline alongside Vietnam’s rise. Vietnam jumped from a half percent to over 10 percent of U.S. imports in the past 13 years while Canada has dropped from 18.3 percent in 2002 down to 5.5 percent in 2015 Q2 – a decline of 12.8 points. As the fourth largest importer, Mexico accounts for 4.8 percent of total imports in 2015 Q2 – 0.8 points shy of 2002.



Imports of Wood and Upholstery Household Furniture by Country in Selected Years (Top 4 Countries)


While the furniture industry in China has been threatened over the past few years due to rising labor costs and labor shortages, U.S imports continue to increase from China alongside a growing Vietnam Wood manufacturing presence. The recent devaluing of the Yuan could go a long way to strengthen China’s hold on U.S.

Wood household furniture imports totaled $9.8 billion in 2014 and are up 10 percent in the second quarter of this year compared to 2014. China still commands the Wood category at $3.7 billion wholesale in 2014, but has lost significant share over the last ten years to Vietnam.

Vietnam’s 2014 imports have grown to $2.2 billion, up from only $60 million in 2002. Through the second quarter of this year, China’s Wood imports have grown only 7.0 percent compared to Vietnam’s 23.9 percent, closing the gap even further. Malaysia continues a steady Wood niche but controls less than 6 percent of Wood imports.

Unlike the Wood category, China has virtually no competitors in Upholstered goods in the U.S. marketplace. In the early 2000s China began to make its move with Upholstery imports of only $543 million in 2002 and grew to $3.9 billion by 2014. Essentially China has taken market share from U.S. producers as the secondary countries – Mexico and Canada – have struggled just to maintain shipment levels. Through the second quarter of this year, China upholstery imports are up another 15.2 percent over the same period last year. Vietnam has slowly tried to enter the U.S. Upholstery market, but had only grown to $293 million in 2014.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade

 

Total U.S. Exports by Top 3 Countries 2002 to 2015Q2

Although the United States exports a fraction of furniture compared to imported goods, exports have continued to rise since 2009 and surpass the peak highs of 2007. Well over half of the $3.4 billion in U.S. exports are to Canada. Mexico has steadily increased as the second largest importer of U.S. furniture – up 92% from 2002 to 2014. In the last 13 years, China has gone from 0.7% of total U.S. furniture exports to 3.6% in 2015Q2.

Although exports have been growing, they are not approaching the growth in imports being fueled by China.  And while the furniture industry in China has been threatened over the past few years due to rising labor costs and labor shortages, U.S imports continue to increase from China alongside a growing Vietnam Wood manufacturing presence. The recent devaluing of the Yuan could go a long way to strengthen China’s hold on U.S.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade





 

Industry Sales by Quarter 2008 Q3 to 2015 Q3 Bedding Industry

Bedding sales grew to an estimated $3.69 billion in the third quarter, increasing 5.3 percent over the same Q3 last year.  Compared to the previous Q2 of this year, sales were up 9.2 percent.  Year-to-date, the bedding industry is 6.3 percent higher than the first three quarters of last year.

Note: Previously issued 2015 Q2 estimates have been revised.


Industry Growth Quarter to Quarter 2011 to 2015 Q3 Bedding Industry


Bedding sales continue to show steady improvement quarter over quarter for the last ten consecutive quarters. In the third quarter of this year sales totaled $3.69 billion, up 5.3 percent over quarter three of 2014. 

Note: Previously issued 2015 Q2 estimates have been revised.


Industry Sales 2007 to 2015 Q3 Bedding Industry


Third quarter year-to-date bedding sales totaled $10.45 billion, up 6.7 percent compared to the same period last year.

Note: Previously issued 2015 Q2 estimates have been revised.


 

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