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Factoids

Factoids offer brief snapshots of current topics pertinent to the Furniture industry based on our on-going research. Increase your grasp of current trends, consumer attitudes, and shifts within the industry through solid statistics and concise insight.

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Factoids

Do Election Years Spur Industry Growth? U.S. Presidential Election Year Vs. 1st Year in Office: Furniture Industry Sales: Growth Over the Previous Year

This is the final factoid in a series of five factoids exploring the possible connection between election years and a healthy economy. The previous four factoids studied the positive effect election years have had on furniture sales, consumer confidence, gross domestic product and unemployment rates from 1997 to 2016. 

While the majority of election years in recent times have ended on a positive economic note for the furniture industry, did the momentum carry over to the first year of a president’s new term? The continued upswing did occur in the 1980’s and 1990’s, but since the turn of the century, furniture industry growth during a president’s first year in office did not surpass the election year preceding it. 

During the 80s and 90s, with the exception of Ronald Reagan’s second term, the first year of a president’s four-year term experienced higher furniture industry growth than the previous election year. In recent elections, the economic momentum of the election year did not carry over to the first year of a presidency. No president’s first year of the term exceeded the previous election year’s growth. If this trend continues into 2017, the Furniture Industry will not experience quite the growth of 2016. 

 

 

Do Election Years Spur Industry Growth? Unemployment Rate U.S. Presidential Terms (1997 to 2016)

This is the fourth factoid in a series of five factoids exploring the possible connection between election years and a healthy economy. Looking back over the past 20 years and the elections those years encompassed yields interesting results. With the exception of the Great Recession in 2008, a possible heightened sense of confidence and hope for the future during election years may partly be responsible for higher furniture sales growth, consumer confidence, gross domestic product and lower unemployment rates.

Like the highs in Consumer Confidence, the Unemployment Rate was at its lowest during the Bill Clinton years. The Great Recession caused the unemployment rate to skyrocket near 10 percent, but by the election year of 2012, the rate has decreased to 8.1 percent and continues to fall almost a percentage point each year. Currently at 4.9, the Unemployment Rate looks to be continuing the trend of other election years with the lowest unemployment of the presidential term. 

While the majority of election years in recent times have ended on a positive economic note for the furniture industry, did the momentum carry over to the first year of a president’s new term? The final factoid of this series will compare election years to the 1st year of a president’s term.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Do Election Years Spur Industry Growth? U.S. Presidential Terms (1997 to 2016) Gross Domestic Product Growth over the Previous Year

This is the third factoid in a series of five factoids exploring the possible connection between election years and a healthy economy. Looking back over the past 20 years and the elections those years encompassed yields interesting results. With the exception of the Great Recession in 2008, a possible heightened sense of confidence and hope for the future during election years may partly be responsible for higher furniture sales growth, consumer confidence, gross domestic product and lower unemployment rates.

The Gross Domestic Product or GDP is defined as the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. The GDP has made its largest gains during election years with the exception of the Great Recession. In both Bill Clinton’s 2nd term and George W. Bush’s 1st term, the value of U.S. goods and services increased by more than 6.5 percent from the previous year. It remains to be seen whether 2016 will follow the same trajectory. The fourth factoid of this series will show the drop in unemployment rates during election years.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

Do Election Years Spur Industry Growth? U.S. Presidential Terms (1997 to 2016) Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100) Average Monthly

This is the second factoid in a series of five factoids exploring the possible connection between election years and a healthy economy. Looking back over the past 20 years and the elections those years encompassed yields interesting results. With the exception of the Great Recession in 2008, a possible heightened sense of confidence and hope for the future during election years may partly be responsible for higher furniture sales growth, consumer confidence, gross domestic product and lower unemployment rates.

Consumer Confidence was highest during the Clinton years – topping out at 139 during his last year in office (an election year). Taking a big dip post 9/11, Consumer Confidence dropped to 80 in 2003 before climbing back up to 96 during George W. Bush’s last year of his final term. During the Great Recession, Consumer Confidence hit its lowest at 45 during Barack Obama’s first term but grew 22 percentage points to 67 in the Election Year of 2012. Consumer Confidence has continued to grow over Barack Obama’s second term, but at 95 in March 2016, it is still below the 1985 base of 100. Up next, election years and gross domestic product gains.

Source: Conference Board

Do Election Years spur Industry Growth? U.S. Presidential Terms (1997 to 2016) Furniture Industry Sales Growth Over Previous Year

This is the first factoid in a series of five factoids exploring the possible connection between election years and a healthy economy. Looking back over the past 20 years and the elections those years encompassed yields interesting results. With the exception of the Great Recession in 2008, a possible heightened sense of confidence and hope for the future during election years may partly be responsible for higher furniture sales growth, consumer confidence, gross domestic product and lower unemployment rates.

In presidential elections over the last 20 years since 1997, the last year of each term with one exception, has produced the highest furniture industry sales growth of all four years of that presidency. The one exception was the second term of George W. Bush which ended during the Great Recession. The last year of each term is also the Election Year for next term, as the nation is experiencing now in 2016. If the pattern continues, 2016 should grow in excess of the 5.3% furniture sales growth of last year.

This factoid shows the furniture industry growth by year over 20 years encompassing five presidential terms, including the current 2016 election. Note that the industry’s highest growth was in the last years of Bill Clinton’s second term and George Bush’s first term. Our next factoid will show the link between election years and consumer confidence.

Source: Impact Consulting Services/ FurnitureCore.com

Markets Finally Recovering to Pre-Recession 2007 Sales Levels

This is the final factoid in a series of four factoids detailing the Furniture Industry’s recovery from the Recession to finally meet and exceed pre-recession peak sales of 2007. The majority of the positive growth in 2015 occurred in large Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s), while many Micropolitan Statistical Areas (Micro SA’s) and Rural Areas are still struggling to make a full recovery.

Segmenting MSAs by industry sales range gives another perspective of market performance. Not surprisingly, the MSAs with Industry Sales over $1 Billion are having the highest percent of sales exceeding 2007 levels in 2015. With only 14 of the 401 total MSAs, the highest sales bracket exceeded pre-recession sales in 10 of those markets which accounted for 73.7 percent of those industry sales.

MSA’s in the top two industry ranges (over $500 Million) were responsible for roughly 63 percent of total sales surpassing pre-recession levels in 2015. All in all, the MSA’s within the largest industry sales ranges have pushed the Furniture and Bedding Industry out of the recession.

Source: Impact Consulting Services Proprietary Model

Markets Finally Recovering to Pre-Recession 2007 Sales Levels Industry Sales in 2015 by Region

This is the third factoid in a series of four factoids detailing the Furniture Industry’s recovery from the Recession to finally meet and exceed pre-recession peak sales of 2007. The majority of the positive growth in 2015 occurred in large Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s), while many Micropolitan Statistical Areas (Micro SA’s) and Rural Areas are still struggling to make a full recovery.

Breaking up the MSA markets by region shows that the Northeast is still struggling to return. It is the only region in which majorities of the MSA’s are falling short of pre-recession sales. While over 50 percent of MSA’s in the Midwest and South have recovered in industry sales, the West is topping the country with over 70 percent of MSA’s exceeding 2007 peak sales.

The percent of markets by region exceeding 2007 sales does not exactly correlate with the percent of region sales by market type. Despite the fact that less than half of MSA’s in the Northeast had sales in 2015 that exceeded 2007, the New York-Jersey City-White Plains MSA (a division of the broader New York CBSA) helped pushed percent of sales in 2015 past the 2007 level for the region. Likewise in the Midwest, the Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights MSA division has yet to fully recover – impacting the poorer sales performance of its region.

Markets Finally Recovering to Pre-Recession 2007 Sales Levels Industry Sales in 2015 Percent by Market Type

This is the second factoid in a series of four factoids detailing the Furniture Industry’s recovery from the Recession to finally meet and exceed pre-recession peak sales of 2007. The majority of the positive growth in 2015 occurred in large Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s), while many Micropolitan Statistical Areas (Micro SA’s) and Rural Areas are still struggling to make a full recovery.

In 2015, the industry as a whole finally exceeded 2007 peak sales but many markets are yet to fully recover. Out of 937 total markets, 533 have surpassed 2007 sales and 404 are still fighting their way back. Forty-two percent of MSA’s fell short of 2007 levels and Micro SA’s have similar numbers with 43.7 percent below the peak sales of 8 years before.

The Percent of Sales chart shows the percent of industry sales in markets that are thriving versus the markets that are still playing catch-up. The markets exceeding 2007 peak levels account for over 61 percent of industry sales with MSA’s and Micro’s have similar outcomes.

Source: Impact Consulting Services Proprietary Model

Markets Finally Recovering to Pre-Recession 2007 Sales Levels Retail Furniture & Bedding Sales 2007 to 2015

This is the first factoid in a series of four factoids detailing the Furniture Industry’s recovery from the Recession to finally meet and exceed pre-recession peak sales of 2007. The majority of the positive growth in 2015 occurred in large Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s), while many Micropolitan Statistical Areas (Micro SA’s) and Rural Areas are still struggling to make a full recovery.

The Furniture Market trudged through eight years of recession and slow growth to finally dig out and surpass the performance in 2007. The industry plummeted 17.4 percent in two years, but it took another six years to recover and grow 24.4 percent to sales of $92.2 Billion in 2015.

In both 2007 and 2015, MSA’s control 90.6 percent of industry sales with smaller Micropolitan Statistical Areas totaling 6.2 percent and the remaining 3.2 percent spread among the rural areas. All three market types are now above 2007 levels. MSA’s took a nosedive in 2009 – dropping 17.7 percent as Micro SA’s and Rural Areas decreased 14.4 and 13.6 percent. While the larger markets had the greatest declines, they have also made the biggest comeback – growing 24.8 percent in comparison to 20.4 percent and 20.9 percent in the smaller markets and rural areas.

Source: Impact Consulting Services Proprietary Model

Sales analysis is provided by Impact Consulting Services, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia and is part of a proprietary model that tracks retail furniture and bedding sales at the market level. Sales include bedding, upholstery, bedroom, dining room, occasional, outdoor, and other miscellaneous furniture items. Sales tax is excluded. Data for all years is calculated based on current market geographical boundaries.


Industry Sales by Quarter 2009 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (Preliminary) Bedding Industry

Industry Sales by Quarter 2009 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (Preliminary) Bedding Industry

Bedding sales in the first quarter of this year grew 5.1 percent over the same Q1 in 2015   totaling an estimated $3.56 billion.  Compared to the last quarter (2015 Q4) which is traditionally Bedding’s lowest performing period, sales were up 16% percent. 


Industry Growth Quarter to Quarter 2013 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (Preliminary) Bedding Industry

 

After a poor fourth quarter last year, Bedding sales in the first quarter of 2016 were up 5.1 percent quarter over quarter totaling $3.56 billion. 

Industry Sales 2008 to 2016 Q1 (Preliminary) Bedding Industry


First quarter Bedding sales totaled $3.57 billion, up 5.1 percent from the same quarter last year.

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