July 27,
2018 by Laurie Northington in General 
After a steady first quarter, total furniture industry sales continued to climb in quarter two, the healthiest growth since 2015. Furniture and bedding sales totaled $28.05 billion the second quarter and $55.04 for the first half of 2018. Despite a sluggish bedding market, total industry sales increased 8.1 percent in 2018 Q2 compared to a poor second quarter last year. Versus the first quarter of this year, sales grew 3.9 percent. First half 2018 sales were up 7 percent over 2017.
Furniture (excluding Bedding) in the second quarter grew 8.9 percent in the second quarter of this year versus the same quarter in 2017 totaling $24.24 billion. Compared to the first quarter of 2018, furniture sales increased 5.5 percent.
Due to the cyclical nature of the Bedding industry, second quarter sales typically weaker than the first of third quarters. Preliminary estimates put second quarter Bedding at $3.81 billion and year to date totals at $7.83 billion. 2018 Q2 finished 3.5 percent higher compare to 2017 Q2 and declined 5.1 percent over the 2018 Q1. For the first half of 2018, Bedding sales are up an estimated 3.1 percent.
The second quarter of 2018 maintained sustained and healthy quarter over quarter growth for furniture and bedding. Industry sales of $28.05 billion reflect an increase of 8.1 percent over 2017 Q2. Compared to the first quarter of this year sales are up 3.9 percent.
Furniture (excluding Bedding) increased 8.9 percent in 2018 Q2 versus the same second quarter of 2017 with sales of $24.24 billion. This figure is also 5.5 percent higher than the previous 2018 Q1.
Bedding sales are still under review, but preliminary results show 2018 Q2 Bedding at $3.81 billion, up 3.5 percent over the same Q2 of 2017. Compared to last quarter, 2018 Q1, sales fell 5.1 percent.
July 20,
2018 by Laurie Northington in General
Although unemployment is down and an additional 10.5 million people are expected to be employed over the 2016 to 2026 decade, the diminishing rate of labor force growth due to an aging population and other changing demographics is projected to further slow the U.S. labor force participation rate. This is the final factoid in a series of six factoids detailing the projected demographic shifts in the workforce as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in 2017 Q4. *See factoid one in this series for Labor Force Methodology
In its purest form, full employment implies that any person wanting a job has one. The issue with employment data is that the Civilian Labor Force definition leaves out the number of people not looking for employment. These are the hidden numbers that are a challenge to economic growth.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses the Economic Dependency Ratio to highlight the impact of the non-employed which they define as the ratio of the number of people in the total population who are not in the labor force, per 100 of those who are. This is the portion of the population “dependent” on the working population. The BLS projections for 2026 highlight the growing economic pressure of the aging population on those in the workforce. The growth in the dependency of ages 65 and over will increase from 24.9 people per 100 workers to 30.9 older Americans. Even so, seniors still the lowest dependency ratio. The dependency ratio of 16 to 64 year olds not in the labor force increased steadily to 2016, but is projected to lessen slightly by 2026. In 2026 there will be an estimated 35 Americans between the ages of 16 and 64 who are not working per 100 American in the labor force. Children under 16 still have the highest dependency ratio, but it has declined from 45.4 per 100 to a projected 2025 ratio of 38.9.
A high dependency ratio can exacerbate the problems a government faces in health, social security & education costs, which are most used by the youngest and the oldest in a population.
Source: Employment Projections Program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics *projected
July 19,
2018 by Laurie Northington in General
The furniture industry, which is heavily influenced by the ups and downs of the housing market, may have temporarily turned a blind eye to the poor economic news released this week on new housing construction. According to second quarter data soon to be released by Impact Consulting Services Inc.’s FurnitureCore.com market model, the furniture industry is beginning to show some much needed signs of life despite the housing shortage. Impact Consulting Services, Inc. is also the parent company of HFB Magazine.
Meanwhile results from FurnitureCore.com’s quarterly industry market model next week are expected to report Furniture and Bedding sales for the second quarter of this year up over 8 percent compared to the same quarter last year.
Dismal news was evident on new residential construction for June compared to May 2018 according to data released this week by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Of the three key indicators from this report, data from May to June show Housing Starts down 12.3 percent, Building Permits down 2.2 percent, and Housing Completions flat.
The June issue of HFB Magazine’s Statistically Speaking article noted that “critically low inventories and subsequent skyrocketing home prices and rental rates are locking out new home buyers and stymieing moves at a time when the economy is growing, employment is high, and Millennials are fully entering their home buying years.” It remains to be seen if sustained furniture industry growth can continue in spite of the housing shortage and the economic realities of furniture buyers.
July 13,
2018 by Laurie Northington in General
Although unemployment is down and an additional 10.5 million people are expected to be employed over the 2016 to 2026 decade, the diminishing rate of labor force growth due to an aging population and other changing demographics is projected to further slow the U.S. labor force participation rate. This is the fifth factoid in a series of six factoids detailing the projected demographic shifts in the workforce as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in 2017 Q4. *See factoid one in this series for Labor Force Methodology
As the labor force gets older, the overall labor force participation rate is projected to decrease – down to 61 percent by 2026. But the individual age groups are of particular interest. For the youngest age group 16 to 24, participation in the workforce declined steadily each 10-year span – from 66 percent in 1996 to a projected 53 percent in 2026. This decline in workforce participation is associated in part with a lower high school dropout rate and increased attendance at colleges, all positive factors. In fact, in many retail labor markets, senior citizens are filling the slots once held by teens and young adults.
The labor force participation rates among 25 to 54 year olds have trickled down but all are expected to be above 80 percent in 2026. And while population numbers for 55 to 64 year olds are projected to hold at 41.3 million over 10 years, the labor force participation rate is expected to increase by 3 percent with more people working longer. For seniors 65 to 74, the Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts 30 percent will still be working in 2026.
The labor force is taking a huge hit with men leaving or not returning to the workforce. At a 74.9 percent labor force participation rate in 1996, the rate for men is projected to fall 11.6 percentage points to 66.2 percent by 2026. However, contrary to strides being made by women in the workforce, just 56.1 percent of adult women 16 and over are expected to be in the labor force by 2026 – down 5.4 percentage points since 1996.
Workforce participation rates were highest in 2006 just prior to the Great Recession in all race and ethnic groups, except White, non Hispanics. Rates in 2016 are projected to continue to decline among all race and ethnic groups from 2016 to 2026 as the population ages with the exception of Hispanics. Hispanics have more of its adult population under the age of 65 than any other race or ethnic group and are less impacted by the aging workforce. Hispanics have the largest percentage of its adult population ready to work at 65.9 percent, with Hispanic men having the highest participation rate of any sex or race at 74.4 percent.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics *projected
July 6,
2018 by Laurie Northington in General
Although unemployment is down and an additional 10.5 million people are expected to be employed over the 2016 to 2026 decade, the diminishing rate of labor force growth due to an aging population and other changing demographics is projected to further slow the U.S. labor force participation rate. This is the fourth factoid in a series of six factoids detailing the projected demographic shifts in the workforce as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in 2017 Q4. *See factoid one in this series for Labor Force Methodology
The labor force participation rate is the percent of the people working or looking for employment, divided by the total number of people over age 16. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the fourth quarter of last year paints a picture of varied growth patterns in labor force participation rates among different age, gender, race and ethnic groups. These participation rates highlight some the economic and social frustrations in America today as government entities, education leaders and communities struggle to find solutions.
While growth continues in both the adult civilian population and labor force, as discussed earlier, the rate has slowed and is projected to continue to slow. In the 20-year period between 1996 and 2006, both grew at about the same rate – 1.3 percent average per year for the population over age 16 versus 1.2 percent labor force growth. However, during the 10-year period of the Great Recession and subsequent recovery 2006 to 2016, the rates got out of whack, with the civilian population over 16 years of age growing on average 1 percent annually while the labor force grew only half that rate. The gap between the civilian population over 16 and the labor force population (those working or looking for work) will narrow only slightly in the years ahead to 2026.
The large 65 plus older total population is on course to grow exponentially from 2016 to 2026 with most leaving the workforce. And while age segments 25 to 34 and 35 to 44 show growth during this decade, the number of 16 to 24 year olds is expected to decrease alongside 45 to 54 year olds. Those ages 55 to 64, many still choosing to stay longer in the workforce, projects a flat population growth.
June 29,
2018 by Laurie Northington in General
Although unemployment is down and an additional 10.5 million people are expected to be employed over the 2016 to 2026 decade, the diminishing rate of labor force growth due to an aging population and other changing demographics is projected to further slow the U.S. labor force participation rate. This is the third factoid in a series of six factoids detailing the projected demographic shifts in the workforce as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in 2017 Q4. *See factoid one in this series for Labor Force Methodology
Due to the influence of immigration on population growth and the projected rise of participation rates among Asians and Hispanic immigrants, the labor force is expected to become more diverse. As the current population ages, the growth of White non-Hispanics in the labor force will decline further after falling 3.6 percent from 2006 to 2016 with an additional projected drop of 2.4 percent over another decade. Both the Hispanic and Asian groups will increase their share of the labor force to 20.6 percent and 7.2 percent by a projected 2026.
As the younger generation’s participation in the labor force declines, and the workers over 65 increases, the median age of the Civilian Labor Force is projected to continue upward. Regardless of race, the median age of the labor force has climbed since 1996 and by 2026 all races are expected to have a median age above 40 with the exception of Hispanics at age 39.3. The next three factoids in this series will focus on the Labor Force Participation Rate.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics *projected
June 22,
2018 by Laurie Northington in General
Although unemployment is down and an additional 10.5 million people are expected to be employed over the 2016 to 2026 decade, the diminishing rate of labor force growth due to an aging population and other changing demographics is projected to further slow the U.S. labor force participation rate. This is the second factoid in a series of six factoids detailing the projected demographic shifts in the workforce as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in 2017 Q4. *See factoid one in this series for Labor Force Methodology
The growth of both men and women in the labor force plummeted after 2006, due to both the recession and a slowing population growth. Although not the fast rise as seen between 1996 and 2006, labor force growth is expected to increase for both sexes between 2016 and 2026, 5.3 percent and 8.0 percent respectively. The forecasted boost of women in the labor force brings their percent distribution up to 47.4 percent in 2026, but men remain in the majority at 52.6 percent. The next factoid in this series will focus on changes in the Labor Force by Race.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics *projected
June 15,
2018 by Laurie Northington in General
Although unemployment is down and an additional 10.5 million people are expected to be employed over the 2016 to 2026 decade, the diminishing rate of labor force growth due to an aging population and other changing demographics is projected to further slow the U.S. labor force participation rate. This is the first factoid in a series of six factoids detailing the projected demographic shifts in the workforce as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in 2017 Q4.
Labor Force Methodology
“Labor force projections are based on expectations of the future size and composition of the population, as well as on the trends in labor force participation rates of different age, gender, race, and ethnic groups, a total of 136 categories. BLS converts population projections to the civilian noninstitutional population concept, a basis for labor force projections. BLS develops participation rate projections using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) conducted for BLS by the Census Bureau” -Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
How will the Labor Force look by 2026? And will there be enough workers to meet the specific needs of American industry? In 1996 all Baby Boomers were within the prime 25 to 54 age segment – roughly 72 percent of the total labor force. Thirty years later, projected in 2026, Baby Boomers will be 62 to 80 years of age and many will have exited the job market – leaving just 63.5 percent of the labor force between 25 to 54 years old. Between 2016 and 2026, the other significant change to the workforce will be among 35 to 44 year olds as the Millennials dominate this age group, growing from 20.6 percent of the workforce in 2016 to 22.2 percent by 2026. They will be the only age group under 65 to gain share of the workforce.
Industries are changing and growing alongside the population. The retail industry is adapting to a changing economic structure and many brick and mortar stores are forecasted to decline in employment over the 10-year period 2016 to 2026. Among these are traditional furniture stores, as well as electronic, department and clothing stores. Furniture Stores are expected to take a 10.2 percent negative hit in employment over the 10 years to 2026. Meanwhile the success of Home Furnishings Stores is expected to boost this channel’s employment 7.4 percent. In the same time period, Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses are expected to gain 23.4 percent more employees. The next article in this series will focus on changes in the Labor Force by Sex.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics *projected
June 8,
2018 by Laurie Northington in General
Since the turn of the century, diversity in America has continued to grow – impacting the political climate, education and the economy. One common thread in the home furnishings industry is that all Americans need and purchase home furnishings, regardless of ethnicity. However, understanding the components of diversity adds perspective to our retail landscape. This is the final factoid in a series of five factoids detailing the changes in population between 2010 and 2016. *see factoid one of this series for The Census Bureau race classifications.
Net Foreign Immigration
Net Foreign or International Immigration accounts for 40 percent of the population increase 2010 to 2016 growing the U.S. population by 2 percent. During that time foreign immigrants added an additional 5.8 million people over six years. In 2016 alone the U.S. experienced a Net Foreign Immigration of almost one million (999,163 persons) compared to 703,824 in 2011.
White Hispanics represented the largest chunk of immigration in the early part of this decade representing 46.4 percent all Net Foreign Immigration in 2011. However, by 2016 that number had fallen significantly to 24.1 percent.
The biggest growth in Net Foreign Immigration has come from Asians who represented 24.3 percent of all immigrants in 2011 but 39.9 percent in 2016. In the six-year period, 2.3 million Asians immigrated to the U.S. compared to 1.3 million White Hispanics, 1 million Whites (Non Hispanic) and 851,355 Blacks.
For furniture and home furnishings retailers, the broadening ethnic diversity of U.S. households presents unique opportunities for products that address the cultural tastes and preferences of these new residents.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
June 1,
2018 by Laurie Northington in General
Since the turn of the century, diversity in America has continued to grow – impacting the political climate, education and the economy. One common thread in the home furnishings industry is that all Americans need and purchase home furnishings, regardless of ethnicity. However, understanding the components of diversity adds perspective to our retail landscape. This is the fourth factoid in a series of five factoids detailing the changes in population between 2010 and 2016. *see factoid one of this series for The Census Bureau race classifications.
Natural Increase: Births Minus Deaths
For the six-year period, the Birth to Death Ratio (the number of births per death) totaled 1.5 for the entire United States. Both younger ethnic groups in the U.S., the White Hispanic population and Asian population have much higher rates of births versus deaths – 5.8 and 3.4 in a six-year period.
The aging of the White (Non Hispanic) group has made an impact on population. Whites still represent 61 percent of the population and 50.1 percent of all births. However numbers of deaths are overwhelming among Whites (Non Hispanic) totaling 78.8 percent of all deaths 2010 to 2016. This negative Natural Increase trend among Whites (Non Hispanic) is expected to continue for years to come. Meanwhile, the younger White Hispanic group 2010 to 2016 represented 22 percent of all births, but only 5.7 percent of deaths. The next and final factoid in this series will focus on Net Foreign Immigration.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau