With Mobility in America at an all-time historical low and only 11.2 percent of people moving from 2015 to 2016, what drives the current movers and leads them to change residence? This is the first factoid in series of four factoids that explores the “why” people have moved since 2000 and takes note of both the growing and declining trends.
Major Reasons to Move
For 42.2 percent of the 35.1 million movers from 2015 to 2016, the biggest reason to move continues to be a desire for new or different housing. Recovering from the recession, job related moves are back up to just over 20 percent of movers since 2006-2007. Meanwhile, over a quarter of American movers (27.4 percent) changed residence last year due to a change in family status
Age of Movers
Young adults ages 20 to 29 dominated all categories for reasons to move in terms of numbers of adult movers -- the principle reason for moving being housing-related (3.7 million movers). These young movers are starting new households, moving into their own apartments or homes or changing residences for various reasons. Job-related moves also dominated this age group more than any other with 3.0 million moving for employment reasons.
For adults 30 to 44 (a 15-year age span), housing-related moves were by far more important than any other category (3.6 million movers) and almost double employment reasons.
Adults 45 to 64 (20 year span) are a large part of the U.S. population and contain a chunk of baby boomers on the back end. However these older adults were most likely to stay put with 2.4 million movers citing housing-related reasons for moves and only 1.1 million moving because of jobs.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement
This is the final factoid in a series of four factoids that give a snapshot of current movers and what factors might determine mobility at this time in America – age, marital status, owning versus renting, and poverty status. With only 11.2 percent of people moving from 2015 to 2016, American mobility is at an all-time record low. The previous three factoids focused on age of movers, marital status, and owners vs. renters, while this factoid centers around mobility by poverty status.
Although 13.5 percent of the population is below 100% of poverty, 22.6 percent of movers were these lowest income households. Americans at 150% of poverty (incomes over $36,450 for a family of four) accounted for 66.4 percent of movers from 2015 and 2016 and 79 percent of nonmovers.
Americans with higher household incomes (above $36,450 for a family of four) are choosing to stay in place – only 9.6% moving in 2016. The poverty category with the lowest income had the highest percentage of Americans move over 2015 to 2016, 18.6 percent of those below 100% of poverty moved over last year.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, General Mobility by Poverty Status *Poverty level categories add to 100%
This is the third factoid in a series of four factoids that give a snapshot of current movers and what factors might determine mobility at this time in America – age, marital status, owning versus renting, and poverty status. With only 11.2 percent of people moving from 2015 to 2016, American mobility is at an all-time record low. The previous two factoids focused on age of movers and marital status while this factoid centers around mobility of homeowners versus renters.
Just over one-third of the population lives in renter-occupied units. As expected, renters of housing units change residence much more often than owners of housing units. Of the 108.2 million renters from 2015 to 2016, 24.8 millions were movers (22.9 percent), compared to just 5 percent of owners. Only 10.3 million people in owner-occupied units moved last year, while 196.4 million homeowners remained in the same residence. Renters accounted for more than two thirds (70.6 percent) of movers from 2015 to 2016. The next and final factoid of this series will look at the mobility of Americans based on Poverty Status.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, General Mobility by Tenure
This is the second factoid in a series of four factoids that give a snapshot of current movers and what factors might determine mobility at this time in America – age, marital status, owning versus renting, and poverty status. With only 11.2 percent of people moving from 2015 to 2016, American mobility is at an all-time record low. The previous factoid focused on age of movers, while this factoid centers around marital status.
Marital Status plays a major role in a person’s desire, ability and necessity to move. Not surprisingly, 17.2 percent of separated people moved in 2016 with never-married people following close behind at 15.8 percent. Eleven percent of divorced individuals moved last year, while only 7.4 percent of married individuals changed residence. Widowed individuals tend to stay put with only 5.1 percent in the category moving.
Att 37.4 percent, single, never married people were the highest category of movers from 2015 to 2016. In the same time span, married individuals were the greatest portion of nonmovers at 41.5 percent. The next factoid in this series will look at the mobility of owners versus renters.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, General Mobility by Marital Status
Once a nation of movers, Americans are increasingly less likely to sell their homes or leave their apartments and move across the country or even down the street. With only 11.2 percent of people moving from 2015 to 2016, American mobility is at an all-time record low. Since the 1950’s, mobility has plummeted almost 50 percent – from 21.2 percent of the population changing residence down to 11.2 percent in 2015 to 2016. While the previous decade’s stagnant change in residence can be owed partly to the economy, this downturn has been steady for over forty years.
This series of factoids gives a snapshot of current movers and what factors might determine mobility at this time in America – age, marital status, owning versus renting, and poverty status. Factoid #1 begins the series focusing on the age of movers.
By far, younger adults moved the most from 2015 to 2016. Twenty-three percent of 20 to 24 year olds and 20.1 percent of 25 to 34 year olds moved last year – double that of 35 to 44 year olds (11.1 percent). With increasing age, the percentage of an age group’s mobility declined significantly. For example, less than 4 percent of adults over age 55 moved between 2015 and 2016.
Fifty percent of all persons changing residence 2015 to 2016 were split evenly between children (24.9 percent) and young adults 25 to 34 (25 percent). Of the 35.1 million movers, 23.7 million (67.3 percent of all movers) were under the age of 35.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Geographic Mobility Rates, General Mobility by Age
Like other furniture industry products, bedding growth has been slow in the first two quarters of this year. 2017 Q2 Bedding sales are up 2.3 percent over the same quarter last year reaching $3.65 billion. Compared to last quarter (2017 Q1), sales are up only 1.25 percent. Year-to-date, the second quarter is up 2.2 percent over 2016.
The slow growth in 2017 in the Bedding industry is reflected in the quarter-over-quarter performance. Bedding sales in the second quarter this year are up 2.3 percent quarter over quarter totaling $3.65 billion.
Second quarter 2017 year-to-date bedding sales totaled $7.25 billion, up 2.2 percent from the same period last year.
Source: Impact Consulting Services, Inc. industry model. 2016 and 2017q1 results have been revised.
The furniture and bedding industry continued slow growth in the second quarter with sales up 2.14 percent over the same quarter last year. Combined furniture and bedding reached $24.48 billion in Q2, up from first quarter sales of $24.07 billion (1.68 percent growth).
Furniture (excluding Bedding) in the second quarter increased 2.11 percent compared to the same quarter in 2016 totaling $20.47 billion. Compared to the first quarter of this year, furniture sales grew a modest 1.76 percent. Year-to-date sales reached $41.3 billion, up 2.09 percent over the first two quarters of last year.
The Bedding industry has also slowed. In the second quarter of 2017, bedding sales were up 2.3 percent over the same quarter of last year and up only 1.25 percent over the previous 2017 Q1. Second quarter sales reached $3.65 billion with year-to-date sales totaling $7.25 billion, up 2.16 percent over the first two quarters of 2016.
Quarter-over-quarter growth shows the slowing of the industry beginning in the second quarter of last year and continuing through the second quarter of this year. In both the first and second quarters, industry sales grew 2.1 percent to $48.55 billion year-to-date. Q2 sales reached $24.48 billion compared to Q1 at $24.07 billion.
Furniture (excluding Bedding) increased 2.14 percent in 2017Q2 versus the same first quarter of 2016 with sales of $20.83 billion. This figure was up 1.68 percent over the same quarter last year
Bedding 2017 Q2 sales totaled $3.65 billion, up 2.3 percent over second quarter of 2016 and 1.25 percent over the previous first quarter of this year.
Source: Impact Consulting Services, Inc. industry model 2016 and 2017q1 results been revised.
This is the first factoid in a series of four factoids detailing the growing emergence of a tax refund season. Many home furnishings advertising and sales events throughout the year focus either on a national holiday or “end of season” promotion. National holidays presumably give consumers an extra day to get out and shop and “end of season” events help retailers clear inventory off floors to make room for new merchandise. Only recently taking form across all consumer products is a sales event that focuses on when consumers actually have extra money to spend.
Thanks to the proliferation of efiling and the increased sophistication of IRS processing, last year $318 billion in tax refund dollars poured into direct deposit accounts and home mailboxes of 111 million tax filers earlier than ever before.
efiling has revolutionized the way people get refunds. In fact, mailing in tax forms is rapidly becoming a thing of the past. The percentage of tax filers efiling tax returns has grown from 30.7 percent in 2001 to 91.0% in 2016 - a climb of 60.3 percentage points. With the IRS currently issuing refunds within 9 to 14 days after receipt of a tax file, filers can receive direct deposits as early as the first week of February. The next factoid will focus on 2016 filing seasons statistics: how many filers received refunds, total dollars refunded by month, and the average refund per tax filer.
Source: Internal Revenue Service (IRS), *Data is from May 2016
This is the final factoid in a series of four factoids detailing monthly Furniture Store sales and the top selling times of the year to buy furniture and home furnishings. Many life events spur home furnishings purchases. But along with buying a new home, marriage, and having children, the time of the year plays an important part in overall Furniture Store sales.
Since 2002, Quarter 3 has climbed to the best selling quarter of the year – mostly due to high August sales. The end of summer sales and the lead into Labor Day has kept the month of August percentage of sales at 8.8 percent until 2016. Last year the Labor Day holiday weekend fell solidly in September which boosted it to the highest performing month of the 3rd quarter. Meanwhile July 4th events are producing average sales during a traditional consumer vacation period.
Market share of November and December combined has dropped from 19 percent in 1997 to 17.2 percent in 2016. While still commanding above average sales, the holiday season has lost some appeal as more consumers are choosing to take advantage of income tax refunds in the early spring and late summer sales. In addition, other consumer goods and electronics also compete for consumer dollars during the holiday season. Meanwhile, October has become the second worst performing month behind January averaging 8.0 percent of sales since 2002.
Source: U. S. Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services
This is the third factoid in a series of four factoids detailing monthly Furniture Store sales and the top selling times of the year to buy furniture and home furnishings. Many life events spur home furnishings purchases. But along with buying a new home, marriage, and having children, the time of the year plays an important part in overall Furniture Store sales.
While the 1st quarter contributed less than 25 percent to Furniture Stores sales in 2016, tax refunds issued at the end of February and throughout March propelled sales upward impacting March significantly. January is negatively impacted especially in markets sensitive to winter weather. And with no big sales event to lure customers, it is the worst performing month of the year for Furniture Stores. February has the draw of big Presidents’ Day sales which helps the weather-sensitive markets recoup somewhat. However, consumers seem to be holding out until spring when income tax refunds arrive. In 2016, almost two-thirds of total annual refunds totaling $203 billion (out of $317 billion) were paid before March 25. March is the only month in the quarter that consistently out performs the average for all months, which is 8.3 percent of sales.
The 2nd quarter typically produces lower Furniture Store sales than the remainder of the year because of a historically poor performance in April. Memorial Day sales in May always produce excellent sales– an average of 8.4 percent throughout the past two decades. In recent years June has also performed above the average. The next and final factoid of this series will focus on third and fourth quarters.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services