This is the second in a series of factoids detailing demographic shifts over the next five and ten years that will impact the Youth Furniture industry. By studying population projections, the Furniture industry can better gauge potential for Youth Furniture growth.
The chart shows the Indexed Growth in the youth population by age range over the next ten years. Note that indexing is an effective way to compare growth rates (as opposed to size of the population). Looking at the youth population age segments, the group “Under Five Years” is projected to have the highest gains in population by 2025 – increasing 5.2%. This youngest age segment is expected to grow an average of 0.5% per year, while the three older youth age segments are projected to experience multiple dips and minimal growth in comparison.
Ages 5 to 9 are still reeling from the lower birth rate during the Great Recession and the group is expected to decrease by (-1.4)% from 2015 to 2018. Youth Under 5 will then begin to age into this group – causing an estimated increase of 4% from 2018 to 2025.
Over the next 10 years, both the tween and teenage groups are projected to diminish or remain flat. They will not pick up steam again until more than ten years out when an expected increase in birth rate and the migration of the grandchildren of the Baby Boomers into these age segments boost these tween/teens in the decades to come.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Projections of the Population of the U.S.
This is the first in a series of factoids detailing demographic shifts, especially over the next five and ten years, that will impact the Youth Furniture industry. Our factoid series starts with the history of U.S. births and projections into the future and will continue over the next few weeks with growth projections of the youth population by age group and growth projections by age group of women of childbearing age.
The number of births peaked in the U.S. in 1957 at 4.30 million babies and did not reach that number again until 2007 when births reached 4.32 million and started to decline. And although births are now on a slow rise, it will be another 30 years from now when births finally top the 4.3 million annual level again.
After a downward spiral of (-8.6)% from 2007 to 2010 during the Great Recession, births are projected to slowly grow an average of 1.4% every 5 years until reaching 4.34 million in 2045.
This slow but steady growth will increase the “Under 5” age group for decades to come while the older youth groups wait for these babies to filter into their age segments – ultimately spurring the need for youth furniture.
Sources: National Vital Statistics System, Center for Disease Control; U.S. Census Bureau, Projections of the Population of the U.S.
Due to strong sales in the first and third quarters, Bedding grew 5% over 2013 – totaling $12.62 billion in 2014. Bedding sales have risen a yearly average of 5.5% - growing 31% since the peak of the Recession in 2009. A big catalyst for increasing Furniture Industry sales, Bedding has grown from 14.9% of the total Industry in 2007 to 16.8% in 2014.
The chart above shows the performance quarter-to-quarter from 2011Q3 through the fourth quarter of 2014. While the Bedding Industry experienced its cyclical decline (-19.4)% over the third quarter in 2014, sales are up 3.4% over the fourth quarter of 2013. Overall, the Bedding Industry has shown positive growth in 2014 – up 5% from the previous year.
While the third quarter of 2014 experienced its traditional jump in sales, the fourth quarter slumped in comparison – down (-19.4)%. Although the Bedding Industry did decline over last quarter, it is up 3.4% over 2013Q4. Year-to-date, sales are up 5%.
The Furniture industry continued to grow in 2014 compared to 2013. Combined Furniture and Bedding sales totaled $87.5 billion – up 3.0% over last year. Furniture (excluding Bedding) increased by 2.7% from 2013 with sales at $74.9 billion and Bedding finished the year up 5% – totaling $12.6 billion.
The chart above shows the performance quarter to quarter from 2011Q4 through the fourth quarter of 2014.
Increasing from $21.6 Billion in 2013Q4, Industry sales were $22.5 Billion for the 4th quarter of 2014. Combined Furniture and Bedding experienced a jump of 4.0% in sales from 2013Q4 and 1.4% over 2013 Q3. The Industry finished 2014 up 3% over 2013.
Furniture (excluding Bedding) increased 4.0% with sales of $19.7 Billion in 2014Q4 – up from $18.9 Billion in 2013Q4.
Although Bedding experienced a cyclical drop in the 4th quarter (-19.4%) compared to the previous quarter, sales are up 3.4% over 2013Q4. Due to strong sales in the first and third quarter of 2014, Bedding sales totaled $12.62 Billion for the year – up 5% over 2013.
The Industry continued its positive momentum through 2014 by increasing 3% over last year – totaling $87.53 billion. A strong 4th quarter contributed to the growth. Combined Furniture and Bedding increased 1.4% over 2014 Q3 and 4.0% over the fourth quarter of last year. Combined Furniture and Bedding totaled $22.48 billion in fourth quarter sales – the highest one-quarter sales since the fourth quarter 2007.
Furniture (excluding Bedding) increased 4.1% over 2013Q4 and 5.3% over quarter 3 of this year. Although Bedding had it’s typical 4th quarter sharp decline – down (-19.4%) compared to 2014Q3, it is up 3.4% from quarter 4 of 2013. Year-to-date, Furniture sales are up 2.7%, while Bedding sales are up 5.0%.
Not only have Durable Goods continued to lose share to consumer expenditures on Services (see Factoid #1 of this series), Furniture as a percent of Durable Goods expenditures has declined by an average of 0.2 percentage points a year from 2006 to 2014Q2. Overall, Furniture’s share has dropped 1.2pts from 8.7% of Durable Goods in 2006 to 7.5% in 2
Furniture as a percent of Total Personal Consumption has consistently dropped over the past eight years with an average loss of (-0.03) percentage points per year. Overall, Furniture has declined 0.27pts from 2006 to 2014Q2.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis