Series Factoid #3: The Future of the Youth Consumer: Youth Population Projections By Age GroupSelected Years 2015, 2020, 2025
This is the third in a series of factoids detailing demographic shifts over the next five and ten years that will impact the Youth Furniture industry. By studying population projections, the Furniture industry can better gage potential for Youth Furniture growth.
As shown in the second factoid of this series, the Under 5 Age Segment has the highest population bump in the forecast. By 2020, youth Under 5 will grow by 3% and 5.2% by 2025 – increasing from 20 million to 21 million.
Youth ages 5 to 9 are expected to grow 2.1% in 10 years. After a projected drop of (-0.9)% in 5 years, the Under 5 Age Segment will give this youth population a boost of 3% -- resulting in an estimated population of 20.9 million in 2025.
With an overall flat growth of 0.1% from 2015 to 2025, age group 10 to 13 shows signs of an initial slight increase of 0.8% by 2020, but is expected to fall (-0.7)% in the following five years. Continuing to decline, Age Group 14 to 17 is forecasted to decrease (-0.4)% in 2020 and another (-0.3)% in 2025.
The dismal population outlook for the two older youth segments can be attributed to a combined slowing of birth rates over the last five years caused by the Great Recession and the glut of the grandchildren of the Baby Boomers not yet reaching their teenage years. Looking past the next 10 years to the following decade (2025 to 2035), Ages 10 to 13 and 14 to 17 are both expected to grow over 4%.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Projections of the Population of the U.S.