Britt Beemer Offers Less Grinchy Forecast

December 17, 2008  by in UnCategorized   

By Home Furnishings Business in Furniture Retailing on December 18, 2008

Retail industry researcher Britt Beemer added a dash of optimism to what had been a downbeat Christmas retail forecast after a strong performance by Wal-Mart over the Dec. 13–14 weekend.

Beemer, CEO of Charleston, S.C.-based America's Research Group now expects Christmas retail sales to be down 2.8 percent from last year's levels. The forecaster—who publishes a monthly furniture retail index—previously estimated that Christmas sales would be down 3.5 percent.

According to the fifth America's Research Group/UBS Christmas survey, nearly two-thirds of those who shopped over the weekend made trips to Wal-Mart.

"Wal-Mart had as many shoppers (during the) weekend as J.C. Penney, Sears, Target and Toys R Us combined," said Beemer, who also publishes a monthly furniture store shopping index. He said Wal-Mart's "unheard-of domination of the retail industry this Christmas, coupled with the fact that consumers are seeing and taking advantage of 60-percent-off and 70-percent-off sales, leads me to raise my forecast."

According to the survey of 1,002 consumers Saturday and Sunday, 66.2 percent of those who shopped visited Walmart (versus 41.2 percent in 2007). The second-ranked destination, J.C. Penney, was visited by 18.1 percent of those surveyed, which was about the same as a year earlier. Overall shopping levels during the Dec. 12–13 weekend were equal to last year, with about 48 percent saying they shopped.

Evidence that shoppers are being more conservative can be seen in responses showing that 27.5 percent of consumers had already completed their shopping and 42.2 percent expect to finish this week (compared to 33.9 percent in 2007).