Container Traffic to Rebound in 1st-Half '10

February 21, 2010  by in UnCategorized   

By Home Furnishings Business in sourcing/importing on February 22, 2010

Import cargo volume at the nation's major retail container ports will be a full 25 percent higher during the first half of 2010 compared with the same period a year ago, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released last week by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

"This is a dramatic turnaround over what we've seen during the past two years," said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. "Increases in import volumes don't correspond directly with dollar volumes in sales, so caution has to be exercised when looking at these numbers. But retailers are clearly expecting to move more merchandise this year."

U.S. ports handled 1.09 million twenty-foot equivalent units in December, the latest month for which actual numbers are available. That was unchanged from November but up 2.6 percent from December 2008 to break a 28-month streak during which monthly totals were lower than the same month the year before.

January was estimated at 1.19 million TEU, a 17 percent increase over January 2009, and February, traditionally the slowest month of the year, is forecast at 1.1 million TEU, up 30 percent from the previous year. March is forecast at 1.18 million TEU, up 23 percent as retailers begin to stock up for spring and summer, April at 1.25 million TEU, up 27 percent, May at 1.3 million TEU, up 26 percent, and June at 1.38 million TEU, up 36 percent.

Those monthly numbers would put the first half of 2010 at 7.4 million TEU, up 25 percent from last year's 5.9 million TEU.
 
Total container volume in 2009 fell 17 percent from the prior year to 12.7 million TEU, the lowest since the 12.5 million TEU reported in 2003.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett disagreed with economists who fear that the economy is in the middle of a W-shaped recovery where another dip could follow current signs of an upturn.

"This forecast assumes that we are not in a double-dip recession and that a recovery is underway," Hackett said. "Although 2009 saw decreased import activity levels, the forecast for 2010 points towards growth."