Furniture Insights: June a "Mixed Bag"

September 5, 2012  by in UnCategorized   

By Home Furnishings Business in economic news on September 6, 2012

Furniture orders slowed in June, rising 3 percent over the same month last year, according to the latest Furniture Insights survey from Smith Leonard.

The High Point accounting and consulting firm conducts the monthly survey of furniture manufacturers and distributors.

"The results of our latest survey of residential furniture manufacturers and distributors showed somewhat of a mixed bag," said Smith Leonard Managing Partner Ken Smith, with orders down 8 percent from May 2012. "Some of the decline from May to June was likely attributable to market orders posted in May due to the late High Point Market.

"The mixed bag we referred to above came from the fact that only 47 percent of the participants reported increased orders, down from 69 percent last month. This was not a big surprise to us since many of the people we talked with in June and July talked about the decline in order rates."

Through 2012's first six months, orders are 4 percent ahead of last year, about the same as we reported last month.

Shipments for the month remained at a good level, up 7 percent from June 2011, but some participants reported good double digit increases, while quite a number were down just slightly. Approximately 44 percent of the participants reported increased shipments, with another 14 percent off just slightly.

Year-to-date, shipments are up 9 percent over the first six months of 2011, about the same as last month. Around 67 percent of the participants reported increased shipments year-to-date, down slightly from 72 percent last month.

As would be expected, backlogs fell 6 percent from May as shipments exceeded orders for the month of June. Backlogs at the end of June were 3 percent ahead of June 2011 down from a 5 percent increase reported last month for May 2012 over May 2011.

"We expect the increases in shipments to level off and catch up with order rates as backlogs continue to fall," Smith said.

Receivables were only up 2 percent over June 2011 even with the higher increase in shipments (up 1 percent last month compared to previous year). Receivables were 1 percent higher than May despite a 3 percent decline in shipments in June compared with May.

"But as we have said before, with a 9 percent increase in shipments, receivable levels continue to be in pretty good shape," Smith noted.

Inventories in June rose 2 percent and were 9 percent above June 2011, compared with an 8 percent increase last month.

"This is a bit more concerning as we would think with the slower order rates, inventories should start to fall somewhat," Smith said. "Some of this may relate to imported products coming in and just not reshipped yet, but we are a bit concerned with inventory levels."

Factory and warehouse employees rose 4 percent higher in June compared with June 2011, the same increase as last month. The number of employees was actually down 1 percent from May. Factory and warehouse payrolls rose 3 percent over June 2011, about the same as last month. Year-to-date, payrolls are up 7 percent over last year, down from an 8 percent increase reported last month.

"As we expected, the increase in new order sales in June compared to June of 2011 was less than great news, with our participants showing an increase in orders of 3 percent over June 2011," Smith said in summary.

On the national front, Smith also saw a mixed bag.

"The economy is moving ahead very slowly, at a pace that is not likely to help matters very much," he said. "On the other hand, housing is showing some nice signs of recovery. Existing home sales showed the fifth consecutive monthly increase and in July were 9.9 percent ahead of July 2011. New residential sales were also up nicely over last year as were housing starts. Unfortunately, consumer confidence took a dive in August dropping 4.8 points.

"Most of this decline came from the expectations index as it fell 7.9 points. While we don€™t pretend to understand all the causes, we do believe all the negative political ads have had an effect. No matter the party doing the talking, it€™s all about how bad one party has done or how bad one party will do in the future. I personally am ready to get November over with and done."

That said, Smith isn't surprised to hear from survey participants that business has, for the most part, slowed since a good start to the year.

"Yet, according to the government reports, sales at retail at furniture and home furnishings stores were up 9.3 percent for the first seven months of the year, so hopefully that is keeping retailers a bit happier," he added. "With housing picking up pretty much across the country, we believe that eventually we will see benefit from this activity. This pick up has been in spite of being 'constrained by unnecessary tight lending standards' and low supply levels. Also with housing prices recovering (the last time there were five back to back monthly price increases was January to May 2006), we hope that will add to consumer confidence."