Container Traffic to Rise in October

October 20, 2011  by in UnCategorized   

By Home Furnishings Business in Delivery on October 21, 2011

Import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports should rise 2.6 percent in October over the same month last year, according to the Global Port Tracker report.

The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates produce the monthly report of retail container port activity. October traffic should reach its highest level of the year as retailers stock up for the holiday season.

"After a summer of trying to compare apples to oranges, retail cargo is back to normal," said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. "October is the historic peak of the shipping cycle each year, and retailers are bringing merchandise into the country on their usual schedule and at normal levels again instead of being forced to move cargo early. Retailers are poised to succeed in maintaining the careful balance between inventory and sales that keeps customers happy while keeping retailers profitable."

U.S. ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.32 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units in August, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was the same as July, but down 7 percent from August 2010.

The August figures followed year-over-year declines of 5 percent in June and 4 percent in July, but the statistics were skewed because of higher-than-normal numbers in 2010 when fears of shortages in shipping capacity caused many retailers to bring holiday merchandise into the country earlier than usual. Global Port Tracker counts only the number of cargo containers imported, not the value of their contents, so cargo volume does not directly correlate with retail sales. Actual retail sales were up during the summer, and NRF is forecasting 2.8 percent growth in holiday sales this November and December over last year, for a total of $465.6 billion.

Year-over-year cargo growth resumed but was weak in September, which was estimated at 1.37 million TEU, up 2.7 percent from last year. October is forecast at 1.39 million TEU, up 2.6 percent from last year, and is expected to regain its historical position as the busiest month of the year after last year's usual patterns shifted the peak to August. November is forecast at 1.28 million TEU, up 4 percent from last year, and December is forecast at 1.18 million TEU, up 2.7 percent. January 2012 is forecast at 1.16 million TEU, down 3.6 percent from January 2011, and February, traditionally the slowest month of the year, is forecast at 1.1 million TEU, down 3.8 percent.

The total for 2011 is forecast at 15 million TEU, up 1.8 percent from 2010. Imports during 2010 totaled 14.7 million TEU, a 16 percent increase over unusually low numbers in 2009.

"General economic indicators are giving us a mixed set of signals," said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. "Yet at the same time there are indications that things are not quite that bad. We are of the opinion that the probability for economic growth is higher than the probability of recession."