Container Traffic Back on the Rise

September 20, 2011  by in UnCategorized   

By Home Furnishings Business in Delivery on September 21, 2011

Import volume at U.S. retail container ports is creeping up again, ending a summer downturn as retailers prepare for the holidays, according to Global Port Tracker.

The Global Port Tracker report is released monthly the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

"With the most crucial spending period of the year just weeks away, retailers have made careful decisions on the amount of merchandise they need to properly stock their stores during the holidays," NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. "This year, retailers have the luxury of importing holiday goods later than last year, which better ensures their inventory levels will accurately meet consumer demand."

U.S. ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.32 million twenty-foot equivalent units in July, the latest month for which numbers are available. That rose 6 percent from June but down 4 percent from July 2010. July was the second month in a row to show a year-over-year decline, and August was flat compared with last year, at an estimated 1.42 million TEU. Rather than indicating an economic downturn, however, the numbers are a skewed comparison against higher-than-normal numbers last summer, when fears of shortages in shipping capacity caused many retailers to bring holiday merchandise into the country earlier than usual. Global Port Tracker counts only the number of cargo containers imported, not the value of their contents, so cargo volume does not directly correlate with retail sales.

Year-over-year growth is beginning to resume in September, which is forecast to be up 11.8 percent from September 2010 at 1.5 million TEU. October is forecast at 1.48 million TEU, up 9.5 percent; November at 1.33 million TEU, up 8 percent; and December at 1.2 million TEU, up 4.5 percent. January 2012 is forecast at 1.19 million TEU, down 1 percent from January 2011.

The total for 2011 is forecast at 15.4 million TEU, up 4.3 percent from 2010. Imports during 2010 totaled 14.7 million TEU, a 16 percent increase over unusually low numbers in 2009.

Given the seasonal nature of cargo volume and continuing uncertainties about the economy, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett was cautious about cargo volume in 2012.

"We should not be lulled into too much confidence by the relatively strong import volumes of August and September," Hackett said. "These are linked to the low levels of inventory that needed to be raised to meet the return-to-school and post-Thanksgiving sales. The third quarter will be positive for the ocean carriers and retailers but that will turn into negative growth for the next two to three quarters thereafter."