June Orders Tick up 1%

August 31, 2011  by in UnCategorized   

By Home Furnishings Business in economic news on September 1, 2011

Retailers' new orders for furniture in June rose 1 percent over the same month last year, according to the latest Furniture Insights survey.

High Point accounting and consulting firm Smith Leonard publishes the monthly survey of residential furniture manufacturers and distributors.

While not a large increase, June 2011 compares to a strong June 2010, when new orders rose 9 percent from June 2009.

"The results for the month were in line with what we had been hearing--that being that business is just bumping along==not really good results but not that bad," said Smith Leonard Managing Partner Ken Smith.

Year-to-date, new orders were 5 percent ahead of the first six months of 2010. June 2010 year-to-date orders were up 10 percent over the first half of 2009.  
 
June shipments rose 2 percent higher than June 2010. when shipments were up 13 percent over June 2009. Shipments in June were 4 percent higher than May 2011.

Year-to-date, shipments remained 3 percent ahead of last year. Year-to-date June 2010 shipments were 7 percent ahead of the first six months of 2009.

Backlogs fell 5 percent from May 2011 as shipments exceeded new orders. Backlogs in June 2011 were 1 percent lower than June 2010 levels down from a 3 percent increase reported last month.
 
Receivable levels fell 3 percent from June 2010 and down 4 percent from May 2011.

"Last month receivables were 3 percent higher than May 2010 so we believe some of these changes are a matter of timing," Smith said. "At least, overall receivables levels appear to be in good shape."

Inventory levels rose 6 percent higher from June 2010 and fell from an 11 percent increase reported in May.

"That is certainly a step in the right direction as inventories had built up in anticipation of better business, which did not come," Smith said. 
 
Factory and warehouse employment stayed level in June compared with May 2011 but fell 2 percent from June 2010,  consistent with the May to May comparisons. June 2010 employment was 2 percent higher than June 2009.

Factory and warehouse payrolls rose 3 percent from June 2010, up from a 1 percent increase reported last month. Year-to-date factory and warehouse payrolls are up 2 percent over the prior year, an increase in line with new orders and shipments and business conditions in general.

In summary, Smith described June results as in line with expectation.

"At least we were comparing to a pretty strong showing in June a year ago when orders were up 9 percent and shipments were up 13 percent from 2009," he said. "Still, we had dug a pretty deep hole in 2007 and 2008 so the increases only got us back some of what we had lost."

Participating manufacturers' results differed significantly as well.

"Even reviewing results on a year-to-date basis to take out monthly swings, we see results of a positive increase in orders in double digits to negatives of well in to double digits," he said. "From a total economy standpoint, furniture just does not seem to have any traction. According to the government reports for retail sales, furniture is 12th in the 13 categories they track, with 0.2 percent growth. Only electronics and appliances stores are worse with a negative 0.3 percent growth rate."

Along with consumer confidence, housing needs to make gains before furniture recovers.

"Clearly housing improvement would not only help furniture sales, but also employment. Unfortunately, instead of maybe a six month vacation that Washington needs (or rather we need them to stay away that long), we will have until November 2012 to listen to more negative comments," Smith said. "With all that said, we do believe that most manufacturers and distributors have adjusted. If we can get just a little more top line growth, we should see profitability improve."