NRF: Container Traffic Growth Levels Out

May 16, 2011  by in UnCategorized   

By Home Furnishings Business in Delivery on May 17, 2011

Import volume at major retail container ports will level off this month, per the Global Port Tracker report from National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

The report indicates traffic will remain steady into mid-summer before resuming gains.

"After nearly a year and a half of volume increases, it's not surprising to see some leveling off," NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. "Retailers are being cautious with how much merchandise they import due to economic pressures such as higher commodity prices, but overall consumer demand remains strong."

U.S. ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.08 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units in March, a gain of only 0.3 percent over the same month a year ago. The number was down 2 percent from February, traditionally the slowest month of the year. While the increase was small, it was the 16th month in a row to show a year-over-year improvement after December 2009 broke a 28-month streak of year-over-year declines.

April was estimated at 1.18 million TEU, a more typical increase of 4 percent over April 2010. But May is forecast at 1.26 million TEU, a decline of 0.6 percent from May 2010, a small drop but the first year-over-year decline since November 2009. June is forecast at 1.31 million TEU, a decline of 0.1 percent from a year ago, and July is forecast at 1.38 million TEU, a decline of 0.4 percent. Year-over-year increases are expected to resume in August, forecast at 1.46 million TEU, up 2 percent from last year, and in September, forecast at 1.49 million TEU, up 11 percent.

The first half of 2011 is forecast at 7.1 million TEU, up 4 percent from the first half of 2010. Global Port Tracker forecasts only six months beyond actual numbers, so a forecast for the full year is not yet available. Imports during 2010 totaled 14.7 million TEU, a 16 percent increase over 2009.

"Consumers are being cautious about their expenditures in light of the higher gasoline costs and rising inflation combined with mixed signals from the economic data," Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. "Nevertheless, we expect the second half of the year to be more robust than the first half."

While import numbers are temporarily flat, the Commerce Department announced Thursday that retail sales increased for the 10th month in a row in April, further evidence that the retail sector and consumer spending continue to lead the economic recovery.