Trudging Upward

December 17, 2013   by in Business Strategy, Industry   

2014 Should See More Business for Furniture Retailers, But Shapes Up for another Slow Growth Year.

By Powell Slaughter

First the good news: Furniture and bedding sales will rise again in 2014, and at a faster rate than this year. The not so good news: That rate of growth remains slow. Home Furnishings Business predicts furniture and bedding sales to reach $76.3 billion dollars next year, an increase of 2.4 percent over a projected total of $74.5 billion for 2013. While faster than this year’s 1.3 percent overall growth, our industry probably will advance less than half as fast as overall retail in 2014.

That’s a little frustrating, since indicators such as employment, housing and the stock market are trending well overall. As the nation creeps forward from the depths it hit in 2009, the only indicator that really seems to count in our business is consumer confidence—and that’s certainly been a roller coaster ride this year.

Ken Smith, managing partner of High Point accounting firm and industry consultancy Smith Leonard, said our forecast for 2014 is in line with what he’s hearing. “The consensus is we’ll bump along with the economy in general, and we’re looking at 2 to 2.5 percent GDP growth” next year, he said. One might think consumers are getting a little numb to Washington shenanigans, or other drags on their confidence. “I tend to agree in part that they are a little numb to some of the negative headlines—that seems to be all they get—but I do think there’s an impact when you start talking about shutting down the government and how that affects the world,” Smith said. “Everyone I talked with at Market said things were bumping along pretty well until the shutdown.

“I’ve about come to the conclusion … that consumer confidence is the key driver to our business. You look at all the other factors—housing’s coming back, we have great interest rates and the stock market’s doing well. All those positives are out there, but it’s still slow.”

Causes for Optimism

Industry analyst Jerry Epperson, managing director at Mann Armistead & Epperson, Richmond, Va., is optimistic about the coming year, when some of those positive indicators could start pointing more dollars furniture’s way. “We’re pretty upbeat. From an economic point of view things are in our favor—housing’s up, employment’s up, and mortgages are affordable,” he said. “We need to consider life outside Washington, D.C. ...

Political brinksmanship has become more like ‘crying wolf’ for the American consumer. “If you look back at the functions that determine our business, it’s been a long time that things were going our way like they are now. Housing wasn’t a driving factor until 2012, that’s kicked in, and that determines our fate. The economy’s been recovering, but we did not participate until now. Other sectors did, and now it’s our turn.”

What’s driving the outlook?

Indeed, industry sales continued to creep up this year, totaling $19.2 billion in third-quarter 2013, combined growth for furniture and bedding of 1.9 percent above the same period last year; and 6.2 percent ahead of this year’s second quarter. Despite breaking that $19 billion barrier in the third quarter, though, year-to-date furniture sales were flat after nine months, bedding up 2.5 percent. So what will impact business for the coming year? There are some demographic trends that should give retailers pause for the next few years, both in terms of age groups (see sidebar, “Baby Bust?”); and in population make-up.

America’s the melting pot, and the immigrant population—especially Hispanics—continues to grow. The best time for thinking about how you’ll approach the unfamiliar people you see in your marketplace is right now. These trends won’t change, and retailers have to figure out how these growing segments fit into their business; or whether they’ll develop and hone a more “traditional” niche. Household formations have risen steadily, close to 120,000 million in 2012. That’s good, but a lot of those could be younger people without a lot of spending power, or immigrants unfamiliar with the brands and retail experiences they see. And while households are forming, a lot of those are thinking about what kind of television they’ll buy versus what they’ll sit on to watch it.

Retailers need to get creative in getting potential customers to see the value in creating a comfortable environment for watching their latest Netflix selection.

A Pricing Conundrum

Average annual household spending on furniture peaked in 2005 at a little north of $450. Even before the recession, when such spending bottomed out at under $350 a year, that figure was in rapid decline, dropping under $400 by 2008. By 2012, the last year for which we have an average figure, annual household spending on furniture remained a little below $400.

Retailers still rely on “lower pricing” as a way to drive traffic, but that tactic hasn’t had much effect on overall volume. And it’s killing margins. In 1983, the Consumer Price Index for all items, furniture, new cars and housing was roughly the same at around 100. By this year, “all items” and “housing” were hovering around 230, “new cars” just under 150. “Furniture”? It was around 120.

This year, consumer prices for furniture fell 1.9 percent. It also hasn’t helped that the United States has moved toward a service economy. Personal expenditures for services, motor vehicles, non-durables, and furniture and equipment were not far apart from one other in pricing shifts. By 2012, services accounted for close to $8 trillion in personal expenditures, while furniture and bedding has essentially flat-lined in comparison. It’s no wonder there’s a problem with household expenditures on our products.

Retailers who’ve decided to compete purely on price as the motivating factor for their shoppers in the coming year will be forced even more than usual to watch costs and trim inefficiency in order to have any hope of maintaining margins at levels sufficient for making their business sustainable.

Confidence Remains a Problem

Home Furnishings Business projects unemployment under 7 percent by the end of the year. That indicator is moving in the right direction, but not enough to drive business to the furniture industry.

And while jobs are being added the number of people not in the labor force will grow as Baby Boomers retire. That will be a factor for another decade or so. Coupled with the slowness of economic recovery, the impact another round of Washington brinksmanship on consumer confidence could put a damper on industry performance the first half of the year.

Housing continues to improve, both in sales and new starts, but gradually. Home improvements are an area where furniture retailers might think about grabbing some consumer mindshare. Those were climbing steadily before the recession, and the downturn’s effect on people’s ability to sell their home kept that an area where they spent money. Retailers could get into the consumer’s thought process early by cross marketing with local home improvement specialists.

The Right Attitude

Whatever else is going on in the world around furniture, Epperson said retailers had best project confidence if they want to increase their business in the coming year.

“I’d take a look at my store and make sure I’m in recovery mode and not hunkered down in a recession mentality,” he said. “More people are moving, and that means more bedroom, more mattress sales. And there’s no reason furniture stores shouldn’t be getting ready for the holidays.”

A number of retailers are making moves—our newsletters are once again reporting on more store openings than closings; new store concepts; and special events that get people in the store and make it part of the community, and get employees excited.

Who’s Hot, Who’s Not?

Forecast is for low single digit increases – Individual results may vary.

While Home Furnishings Business forecasts furniture and bedding sales to rise 2.4 percent next year, it’s important to note significant variance could occur depending on the size of your market. Bottom line overall? The larger your market, the larger your chance is to meet or outperform the industry overall in terms of percentage sales increases.

Breaking It Down

We took a look at sector business in metropolitan statistical areas comparing third-quarter 2013 performance with the same period last year. Third-quarter business across the board was up 1.9 percent in this year’s third quarter. Keep that figure in mind when reading the following.

We found the 10 MSA’s that accounted for $1 billion or more in 2012 furniture and bedding retail sales accounted for 19.4 percent of overall business during 2013’s third quarter. Those regions were up 2.7 percent over the prior-year period, the largest increase among MSA groupings.

The 24 MSAs that rang up $500 million to $999 million—21.8 percent of overall business—saw an quarter-to-quarter increase of 2.2 percent in the third period. Forty-one MSAs running from $250 million to $499 million brought in 19.2 percent of U.S. sales in the quarter, and were up 2.1 percent over the prior year. There’s a pretty fair drop-off from there in terms of quarter-toquarter increases, as market size declines. Seventy-seven MSAs that had $100 million to $249 million in furniture and bedding sales last year, and 14.9 percent of third-quarter 2013 business, were up just 1.4 percent that period compared with last year’s third quarter.

The 71 MSAs in the $50 million to $99 million range in 2013— representing 6.5 percent of third-quarter national sales—increased 1.3 percent; and 100 MSAs doing $25 million to $49 million, accounted for 4.9 percent of Q3 sales, when they were up 1.1 percent over the prior year period. Sixty-one MSAs that did less than $25 million last year represented 1.5 percent of third-quarter sales; and were down 0.9 percent for in those three months. “Micro Statistical Areas,” which number 575 did 8.5 percent of third-quarter business, and increased 1.5 percent; while rural areas representing 3.5 percent of business in the quarter saw their furniture and bedding sales rise just 1.3 percent in the period.

Size Isn’t Everything

We also observed significant variation among markets of the same size. We took a look at those MSAs broken out by furniture and bedding sales in 2012, and compared performance from that year’s second quarter through the same period in 2013. Following are the best and worst performing MSAs in the same market size categories as above, and their percentage change in sales during the period measured.

Baby Bust?

Here’s a tidbit to consider not only for 2014, but for years to come—consumers ages 35 to 44 years, have been declining in numbers since the early 2000s. Traditionally a prime target for the furniture industry, this segment will continue to decline for the next decade creating a significant “head wind” for the sector.

The trend calls for strategic thinking from furniture retailers. Ken Smith, managing partner at Smith Leonard was in Chapel Hill, N.C., in mid-November, where as a board member of UNC Hospital, he heard a detailed presentation outlining changes in demographics— the baby boomers aging, the next generation coming along, the growing immigrant population. “That was all in reference to the effect on health care, but retailers, manufacturers and distributors are going to have to focus on where they fit into all of that,” he said. “You have a large number of new consumers coming along, but most of them won’t be looking for high-end product yet. “I think we’ve learned by now that you can’t be everything to everybody, and you have to figure out where you fit in the demographics you’re dealing with.”

There’s a lot to look forward to demographic-wise— the upcoming Millennial generation is big and will create a boom, but retailers will need to cater their shopping experience to this tech-savvy gang.

Strength in Adversity

December 17, 2013   by in Business Strategy, Industry   

REPUTATION, EYE FOR OPPORTUNITY HAD WOLF FURNITURE EXPANDING AMIDST A NATIONAL AND REGIONAL DOWNTURN.

By Powell Slaughter

One might not think western Pennsylvania and Maryland would be a prime area for a furniture retailer to expand during a recession, but that’s what Wolf Furniture did. The Bellwood, Pa.-based retailer grew during the downturn, filling in its regional market presence by acquiring stores that were going out of business. In the 10 local markets in Pennsylvania and Maryland where it operated, 82 competitors went out of business, while only one new operation opened, according to CEO Doug Wolf.

This past Labor Day the retailer entered northern Virginia with a store in Leesburg. How did Wolf grow while others closed? “Some of that was simply economics,” Wolf said. “You had a lot of mom and pops with good locations and good employees who just couldn’t make a go of it for whatever reason.

“We tried to come in and inject some capital into those stores, which had a lot of residual goodwill among their customers. We’re a known name in the region, and consumers and employees actually welcomed us in those instances. We have a lot of longevity within our areas, and we’re a family business.” While the furniture retail business didn’t start until 1902, the Wolf family’s retail roots in western Pennsylvania trace back to the 1860s, when it started a hardware operation.

The furniture business is now under its fourth generation of family management—Doug’s father, John Wolf, remains active in the operation as chairman. That family touch goes a long way in the smaller and mid-size cities Wolf serves. If a customer has an issue, they get a response from someone with the same name as the one on the sign. “I get every positive or negative customer reaction in our organization,” Wolf said. “It’s an opportunity to praise an individual or get in touch with local management to make corrections. “We also tend to be a very loyal client to our suppliers, and that perhaps is not as common as it once was,” he said.

During the recession, Wolf wasn’t worried about being dropped by its suppliers, and they weren’t worried about being replaced on the floor at the drop of a hat.

ADJUSTING TO THE TIMES

Wolf was in a position to make moves during the recession, but it was no more immune to the drag on business than any other retailer. The store went the extra mile to create a positive environment for employees and customers alike. “When your business is down, that creates the danger of a high-pressure sales environment,” Wolf said. “We decided to go to non-commission compensation for our salespeople across the organization. It took away the immediate relationship between closing the sale and making a car payment; and it made for a more pleasant shopping experience for the customer.”

Speaking of the shopping experience, Wolf spent a lot of dollars on food and drinks during major traffic hours so that customers would spend more time in the store. And while Wolf expanded, it did so with prudence. “On average our preferred footprint was 60,000 to 67,000 square feet, but the last couple of years it’s been 40,000 to 50,000,” Wolf noted. “That reflects the scaled-down volume, both for ourselves and our industry.”

ESTABLISHING A BASE

Fortunately, Wolf had repositioned itself before the recession hit. “Our executive team started trying to figure out which direction we’d take in the ‘90s,” Wolf said. “We’d been a cross between a smalltown credit house and full-service retailer. Shopping was moving from downtowns out into the suburbs, and we had to think about where we wanted to be.”

By 1992, the operation had grown to 27 stores in three states. That’s when Wolf evaluated an offer for sale of 14 stores to national chain Heilig Meyers, deciding to hold onto three stores located in Altoona and Johnstown, Pa.; and Frederick, Md. Wolf’s own research found that while it was the store of choice for many consumers in its markets, as their families matured and tastes changed, they were moving away. “We decided to broaden our appeal with a quality focus and be a little more fashion forward, especially as the Value Cities and Ashley Homestores started appearing in our market,” Wolf said. “We’d buy things you might not find in a chain—Jaipur Rugs, Four Hands. We merchandise that sort of product into our assortment. We also try to merchandise where a third of our store is available in-stock for immediate delivery; and product with choices and options are on quick-ship programs. “A lot of the mom-and-pops are gone, and we’ve tried to step in and fill that void. We want to be the dominant full-service store in the market.”

SPREADING THE WORD

Wolf said another reason it made it through the recession was a decision to keep advertising.

Wolf Furniture at a Glance

Homebase: Bellwood, Pa.

Store Stats: Founded in 1902, Wolf Furniture operates 12 stores and a clearance center in Pennsylvania, Maryland and northern Virginia. Stores range from 40,000 to 65,000 square feet; and employ around 500 people

Key Industry Affiliations: A member of an Impact Consulting performance group and a FurnitureCore client

Key Management: Doug Wolf, CEO; Gene Stoltz, president; John Wolf, chairman; Doug Shaffer, senior vice president of store operations; Germaine Crocker, treasurer

Annual Revenue: Around $100 million

Key Vendors: La-Z-Boy, Southern Motion, Catnapper/Jackson, Smith Brothers, Restonic, Sealy, Craftmaster, Broyhill, Daniels Amish, Sunny Designs, Klaussner.

Consignment Model Gains Steam

Allegheny Furniture Consignment, a furniture consignment concept developed by Wolf Furniture CEO Doug Wolf, is picking up momentum.

Right now AFC has one existing store in Harrisburg, Pa., with another set to open in another Wolf market in next year’s first quarter. And last month, it gained its first outside license with Laurel, Del.-based Johnny Janosik. “We believe this is going to be, and not only for us, the next big move on tie breakers,” Wolf said, adding that he gives a lot of the credit for the idea to Mann, Armistead & Epperson’s Jerry Epperson. “He talked a lot about how you have to give her a way to get rid of the stuff she has to make room for new furniture.”

Wolf found that the store’s employees were referring customers to consignment outlets for unloading old goods on many occasions. “We realized that if we can provide customers with an outlet store for their old furniture, we can get two sales from the same customer,” he said (68 percent of customers consigning with AFC are Wolf customers). “You have additional gross margin revenue with no additional inventory.” Sales are up 40 percent this year at Wolf’s AFC outlet, selling more than 8,000 consigned orders so far. AFC is scheduling consignment pick-ups out almost five weeks. Wolf started pitching the concept to other stores when he took a booth in the resource center at the 2012 Home Furnishings Industry Conference in Palm Springs, Calif. Almost two dozen furniture retailers are interested in the project, and some of those are ready to commit.

“We have licensing contracts out for eight more retailers at the moment,” he said. “I don’t want to name names right now, but we have a lot of friends out there, and we’ve been able to pick and choose.”

A Look at the Markets

Wolf Furniture serves markets ranging from small to mid-size cities in Pennsylvania and Maryland to a college town (State College, Pa.), and, with the opening this year in Leesburg, Va., the outer fringe of the Washington, D.C., metro area.

Through this year’s third quarter, 10 markets totaled $1.8 billion in estimated home furnishings retail sales. That includes a new market, the D.C. area, but for the markets Wolf historically served, the total is $717.4 million. With the exception of State College, where Pennsylvania State University’s college-age population skews the count, those markets have very similar age demographics. Pie charts are virtually identical. Excepting State College, the under-25 population in Wolf’s Pennsylvania and Maryland markets ranges from 3.17 percent in Bethasda-Rockville-Frederick, Md., to 4.41 percent. Consumers age 25 to 34 vary from 11.6 percent in Johnstown, Pa., to 18.29 percent in State College. Most of the others are in mid-14s to 15s percentage in that age group. The 35 to 44 segment offers a bit more variation. That age bracket accounts for 15.4 percent of customers in Lancaster, Pa., to 16.5 percent in Altoona, with Johnstown and State College in between. Five markets for those ages range from 18 percent in Chambersburg, Pa., to 20.9 percent in Bethasda-Rockville- Frederick, Md. The income sweet spot for furniture retailers, consumers in their prime earning years, age 45 to 64, ranges from 35.2 percent in Chambersburg to 45.1 in Johnstown, Pa., in the store’s historical markets; with the only outlier from that range being 30 percent in State College.

As middle to upper-middle retailer, Wolf is well-positioned for its traditional markets’ income levels. Only three markets are below 60 percent in the middle income segment, households with annual incomes of $35,000 to $99,999. In that income demographic the range goes from 47.8 percent in Bethesda- Rockville-Frederick, Md., to 57.8 percent in State College; 59.1 percent in Johnstown; 61.5 percent in Altoona; 62.4 percent in Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa.; 63.8 percent in Hagerstown-Martinsburg; 65.9 percent in Lancaster, Pa.; 66.2 percent in York-Hanover; and 66.4 percent in Chambersburg.

Free Time

Wolf Furniture CEO Doug Wolf is fortunate enough to be able to mix business with pleasure. “I’m an avid fisherman and snowmobiler,” he said. “I’m a very lucky guy in that there’s a broad group of home furnishings friends who share those passions, too.” It’s easy and natural to talk shop when out with friends in the winter snow or on the water. Wolf isn’t picky about what he goes after either—he just loves fishing of all sorts. “I can enjoy fishing for catfish as much as fishing for sailfish,” he said.

HFB’s 3rd Annual Power 50 Ranking

December 17, 2013   by in Business Strategy, Industry   

Welcome to our third annual Home Furnishings Business Power 50 ranking.

The ranking—our take on how the industry’s retailers should be ranked— takes into account retail sales volume, social media power through Klout scores, the popular vote and new for this year, market share. It’s a different spin on home furnishings retail rankings, and throughout the next several pages, you see the different ways in which we sliced and diced the data. Dissecting things in a way that shed a bit more light on our industry’s retailers.

To those of you who took the time to vote with our online ballot: We salute you. Your input makes ourPower 50 a retail ranking with some personality. Thank you!

Enjoy the lists.

Click here to see the list.

An Independent Front

Independent retailers make up a huge chunk of the furniture retailing community. We thought it would be interesting to shake up the bag and see how the independent retailer— those with less than $50 million in annual sales and operating in one state—stack up.

Here’s our look at the top 20 independent retailers.

Click here to see the list.

Regional Chains

Regional chains tend to make a big splash in their markets. For our classification purposes, regional chains are those retailers with stores in states other than their own home base. Retailers like Rooms To Go and Havertys who bring big name recognition into the markets in which they operate rank on this list. Other retailers, like Art Van and Grand Home—which have more recently ventured out of their home state to broaden their consumer reach—make the list, too.

Click here to see the list.  

Large Independents

Large independent retailers tend to rule their markets. They have annual sales in excess of $50 million, and operate stores within one state. Name recognition among consumers is powerful, and the large independent retailers generate the rewards from owning the lion’s share of their markets.

Click here to see the list.  

Going Up

The line between manufacturing and retailing continues to blur, and vertical retailers are gaining steam. Suppliers see great benefit in the ability to control the message and presentation of their brand. Retailers like the Williams-Sonoma lineup of brands, reap similar benefits in controlling look, feel and scent of their products and stores. Here are our vertical lists for both manufacturers who cross over into the retail side of the business and for retailers who step over into the supply side of furniture land.

Click here to see the list.  

The Hottest Retailers

December 17, 2013   by in Business Strategy, Industry   

By Bob George

Revealing 2013’s Sexiest Furniture Retailers!

Relax. We’re not really going to do that even though that the issue for many consumer magazines is the one most often read. Nonetheless, people DO love lists and they DO love to compare. Therefore, in this issue we present Home Furnishings Business’ Power 50. This is the third year we’ve analyzed this topic and believe it is evolving as a mechanism to identify outstanding performance beyond revenue.

The question becomes, “What are the variables?” First, we must remember the ultimate arbiter of who an “Outstanding Retailer” is the consumer. As a consulting firm, we measure how the consumers perceive each retailer in their markets in terms of 11 retail experience factors that influence consumers’ purchase decisions. If we consider the national ranking of these 11 factors by importance, we see the following. Price of the product is the most important factor. Following in order of importance are Reputation of Retailer and Product Selection sharing the position of second most important factors. The other factors follow in this order: Customer Service, Ease of Shopping, Store Interior, Effectiveness of Sales Personnel, Store Display, Advertising, Financing Options, and Store Exterior. This approach is difficult to do on a national basis, but we continue to work on it.

Next, we must recognize there are varying business models that have emerged in the last 30 years emphasizing different experience factors to better engage the consumer. Therefore, we analyzed several of these models and the performance of the participants.

And finally, we looked at the rationale for each of the Power 50 factors. Figure A graphically presents the rationale for each of these factors.

The Klout Score measures the social media presence of a retailer. It is a surrogate for Brand Awareness. The Alexa Score is a relative ranking of visitors to a retailer’s Web site. This is a measure of both brand awareness and the effectiveness of a retailer’s Advertising and Promotions. The Market Share measures a retailer’s performance in securing the sale when compared to a retailer’s opportunity for a sale in the markets that retailer serves.

There are many areas to be challenged not only in the weighting of the factor, but also in the factors themselves. While everyone wants to be No. 1, the point really is to measure current performance and to determine how to improve that performance. I welcome your comments as we make the Power 50 a benchmark to be considered.

A Happy Ending

December 17, 2013   by in Business Strategy, Industry   

By Sheila Long O’Mara

During this holiday season of peace, joy and thankfulness, I’ve been fortunate enough to stumble upon one of the most incredible journeys into the furniture business that I’ve come across in some time. Here in Columbia, S.C., no less; right under my nose.

It’s the perfect backbone for a book. There’s strife. There’s true love. There’s crime, and there’s a good bit of struggle.

Also, woven through the story are elements of human nature that make us all warm and fuzzy inside when they are revealed. Kindness; generosity; faith; courage and good ol’ fashioned hard work and tenacity.

And, for us, it has furniture and retail and success. Darby Hiott is the owner and founder of Beds & Such in West Columbia, S.C., a one-store operation that in the last two years has taken hold in a market filled with interior design studios, big box retailers and a few independent home furnishings retailers.

Darby opened the store in 2011 shortly after marrying his wife and partner Lori. Typically, the opening a small, family-owned furniture isn’t the thing great books are based on, but Darby’s journey along the way to Beds & Such is just shy of remarkable. Prior to the store and before meeting his wife, Darby had fallen on tough times. He’d had some experience in the business when he worked at a large furniture store here in town. Times got hard, and Darby was out of work, out of money, out of food and out of his home.

More times than not, Darby found food from fastfood dumpsters. He wore holes in the only pair of shoes he owned. He was pretty much down and out, but he’ll tell you his faith helped him pull himself back up. He landed a job at a local furniture store—the store where he happened to meet his now wife, who just happened to be shopping for a big girl bed for her daughter. Fate; kismet; destiny. The two were meant to be together. Misfortune struck again on the couple’s wedding day when Darby lost his job at that store. Through much consideration, prayer and support from his new mother-in-law, Darby and his new bride put together a plan. A plan to create a family-owned furniture store.

Today, that plan has come to fruition. The work, the effort, the passion—all have come together in Beds & Such. The Hiotts work in tandem with one another and their team of employees to help customers furnish homes throughout the Midlands of South Carolina. A wonderful twist of fortune. The man who was once homeless is now helping people furnish their homes.

Now that is a happy ending.

Here’s wishing all a peaceful and bright holiday season filled with an abundance of love. I look forward to the year ahead and I’m excited about what 2014 holds for the home furnishings industry.